Nat-Gas Prices Fall on Larger EIA Inventories and Record U.S. Production

Nov Nymex natural gas (NGX22) on Thursday closed down by -0.081 (-1.16%).

Nov nat-gas Thursday posted moderate losses after weekly EIA nat-gas inventories rose +103 bcf, above expectations of +96 bcf and the 5-year average of +77 bcf.  Nat-gas prices are also under pressure from news that U.S. lower-48 state total gas production Thursday climbed to a record 101.4 bcf.  In addition, nat-gas prices were weighed down by concern that electric and economic shutdowns from Hurricane Ian will cut nat-gas demand in the Southeast.  

A mixed weather picture is bearish for nat-gas prices.  Atmospheric G2 said Thursday that cooler than normal weather is expected for the Eastern U.S. from October 4-8, with above-normal temperatures expected for the central and western U.S.

In an underlying bullish factor, this week's sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 undersea nat-gas pipeline and the massive leak under the Baltic Sea means there will be no near-term chance that Russia might reopen the pipeline to begin delivering gas to Europe again.  Prior to the explosions, Russian's state-owned gas company Gazprom had cut off the delivery of gas through that pipeline to Europe under the pretext of technical issues.

Lower-48 state total gas production on Thursday was a record 101.4 bcf, up +7.2% y/y.  Lower-48 state total gas demand on Thursday was 64.5 bcf/day, up +2.7% y/y.  LNG net flow to U.S. LNG export terminals Wednesday was 12.2 bcf/day, up +9.8% w/w.

An increase in U.S. electricity output is bullish for nat-gas demand from utility providers.  The Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended Sep 24 rose +4.7% y/y to 79,329 GWh (gigawatt hours).  Also, cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending Sep 24 rose +2.7% y/y to 4,125,781 GWh.

Nat-gas prices have support as EU countries agreed to cut nat-gas demand from Russia by 15% over the next eight months.  Also, Russia recently slashed nat-gas exports to Europe to 20% of capacity, putting upward pressure on European nat-gas prices.  Russia has already halted nat-gas shipments to Demark, Finland, Bulgaria, Netherlands, Poland, and Latvia and reduced supplies to Germany for not acceding to its demand for gas payments in Russian rubles.

Nat-gas prices have seen downward pressure from the prolonged outage at the Freeport LNG export terminal, which curbed U.S nat-gas exports and put upward pressure on domestic supplies.   The Freeport terminal accounted for about 20% of all U.S. nat-gas exports before the explosion on June 8 knocked it offline.  The Freeport LNG terminal receives about 2 bcf, or 2.5%, of the output from the lower-48 U.S. states.  The Freeport terminal said Aug 23 that it won't reopen until early to mid-November, later than a previous announcement of a restart in October.

Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices as it showed U.S. nat gas inventories rose +103 bcf to 2,977 bcf in the week ended Sep 23, above expectations of a +96 bcf increase and above the  5-year average of +77 bcf.  However, inventories remain tight and are down -6.1% y/y and -9.3% below their 5-year seasonal average.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended Sep 23 fell by -2 rigs to 160, falling back slightly from a 3-year high of 166 rigs the week ended Sep 9.  Active rigs have more than doubled from the record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
 

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