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Gold Dec '18 (GCZ18)

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cmdty Insider - Gold Market Commentary

Dec Comex gold (GCZ18) on Friday closed up +$8.00 an ounce (+0.77%) and Dec Comex silver (SIZ18) closed up +0.119 (+0.83%). Dec gold rallied to a 1-week high Friday after the dollar index tumbled to a 1-week low. Comments from Fed Vice Chair Clarida on Friday undercut the dollar and reduced expectations for additional Fed rate hikes when he said that a gradual policy has served the Fed well, that policy is getting closer to vicinity of neutral, and that there is some evidence of global slowing. Brexit risks continued to boost safe-haven demand for precious metals after two cabinet ministers quit earlier this week in protest of Prime Minister May's Brexit separation deal and as speculation grows of a leadership challenge to Prime Minister May. A positive for silver Friday was the +0.3% increase in U.S. Oct manufacturing production, slightly stronger than expectations of +0.2% and a positive sign for industrial metals demand.Big Picture Gold-Silver Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) expansive ECB and BOJ monetary policies, (2) safe-haven demand for precious metals from to the global stock market correction, Brexit, and the Italy-EU budget standoff, and (3) the global economic expansion that is supportive for industrial metals prices. Bearish factors include (1) strength in the dollar as the dollar index posted a 1-1/2 year high in mid-October, (2) tighter liquidity as the Fed raises interest rates and draws down its balance sheet, and (3) the slower Chinese economy and US/Chinese trade tensions that dampen Chinese demand for industrial metals.

Contract Specifications

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Gold 100-oz
Contract Size
100 fine troy ounces
Tick Size
0.10 (10 cents) per troy ounce ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 7:20a.m. - 12:30p.m.) CST
Point Value
First Notice Date
11/30/18 (13 days)
Expiration Date
12/27/18 (40 days)

Seasonal Chart

Gold Dec '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Nov 13, 2018

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Commercials - Long / Short
201,354 (+27,457)
203,177 (-8,856)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
168,416 (-725)
177,663 (+27,548)
Producers - Long / Short
47,551 (+10,528)
89,514 (-9,820)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
105,368 (+6,242)
65,228 (-9,723)
Managed Money - Long / Short
79,529 (-2,659)
158,723 (+29,089)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
88,887 (+1,934)
18,940 (-1,541)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1,196.6 +2.21%
on 11/13/18
1,246.0 -1.85%
on 10/26/18
-8.0 (-0.65%)
since 10/16/18
1,178.5 +3.78%
on 08/17/18
1,246.0 -1.85%
on 10/26/18
+39.0 (+3.29%)
since 08/16/18
1,167.1 +4.79%
on 08/16/18
1,392.3 -12.16%
on 01/25/18
-81.0 (-6.21%)
since 11/16/17

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 1,233.2
1st Resistance Point 1,228.1
Last Price 1,223.0s
1st Support Level 1,215.8
2nd Support Level 1,208.6

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52-Week High 1,392.3
Fibonacci 61.8% 1,306.3
Fibonacci 50% 1,279.7
Fibonacci 38.2% 1,253.1
Last Price 1,223.0s
52-Week Low 1,167.1

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