Arabica Coffee 4/5 Mar '25 (XFH25)
Arabica Coffee 4/5 Futures Market News and Commentary
May arabica coffee (KCK26) on Friday closed down -7.15 (-2.41%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) closed down -86 (-2.48%).
Coffee prices settled sharply lower on Friday, with arabica falling to a 1-week low. Â Coffee prices fell on Friday after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz is now reopened, which should restore normal shipping flows and ease global coffee supply concerns.
Last Wednesday, arabica fell to a 1-month low amid expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop. Â On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 75.9 million bags, even higher than Sucafina's forecast of 75.4 million bags (+15.5% y/y). Â On March 12, StoneX raised its Brazil 2026/27 coffee production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from a November estimate of 70.7 million bags. Â Meanwhile, StoneX projected the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025, the biggest surplus in 6 years.
Soaring coffee exports... Read more
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