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Ultra T-Bond Sep '19 (UDU19)

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Ultra T-Bond Futures Market News and Commentary

10-Year T-Notes Get Boost from Weak Economic Data and Fall in Inflation Expectations

Sep 10-year T-notes on Monday closed up +1 tick and the 10-year T-note yield rose +0.4 bp to 2.086%. T-note prices on Monday recovered from early losses and moved higher on weak U.S. economic data along with a new low in inflation expectations. T-notes moved higher Monday after the U.S. June Empire manufacturing index plunged by -25.4 points to a 2-1/2 year low of -8.6, weaker than expectations of -6.8 to 11.0. Also, the U.S. June NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell -2 to 64, weaker than expectations of +1 to 67. T-notes also found support Monday on reduced inflation expectations as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate on Monday fell -2.7 bp to 1.613% and posted a new 2-3/4 year low of 1.612%. Comments from ECB Executive Board member Coeure also supported German bunds and T-note prices Monday when he said, "the constellation of prices in the bond market paints a picture of the global economy which is very bleak" and the ECB will act if needed to support the economy. The market is now discounting the odds of a -25 bp rate cut at 17% for the Tues/Wed FOMC meeting (June 18-19) and at 83% for the following FOMC meeting on July 30-31.
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