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White Sugar #5 Oct '19 (SWV19)

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White Sugar #5 Futures Market News and Commentary

Sugar Prices Close Lower as They Follow a Slump in Crude Oil

July NY world sugar #11 (SBN19) on Wednesday closed down by -0.19 (-1.61%) and Aug ICE London white sugar #5 (SWQ19) closed down by -3.50 (-1.07%). A slump in crude oil prices Wednesday undercut sugar prices after crude sank to a 1-week low. Weak crude prices are negative for ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane-crushing toward sugar production rather than ethanol production, this boosting sugar supplies. July NY sugar tumbled to a 7-1/2 month low Tuesday and Aug London sugar dropped to a 9-month low on the prospects for increased exports from India. The India Sugar Mills Association forecast India's sugar stockpiles may reach a record high of 14.7 MMT by Sep 30, and Meir Commodities India Pvt projects India will boost its 2019/20 sugar exports to 6 MMT from 3 MMT exported this year in order to curb its excessive sugar reserves. Robust global sugar output continues to weigh on sugar prices. Conab projects that Brazil 2019/20 sugar production will climb by +17.4% y/y to 34.1 MMT and that Brazil's sugar mills will increase their percentage of cane crushing to produce sugar to 39.1% from 34.9% in 2018/19. Another bearish factor for sugar is weakness in the Brazilian real which tumbled to a fresh 7-1/2 month low against the dollar Monday, which encourages export selling by Brazil's sugar producers. A bullish factor for sugar prices is strong ethanol demand in Brazil. Unica reported Tuesday that Brazil Jan-Apr sales of hydrous ethanol surged +35% y/y to 7 billion liters. Also, on Monday, researcher Green Pool Commodity Specialists raised their forecast for a 2019/20 global sugar deficit to -3.0 MMT from a prior forecast of -1.6 MMT, citing increased ethanol production from Brazil's sugar mills at the expense of sugar production.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
White Sugar #5
Contract Size
50 metric tonnes
Tick Size
10 cents per metric tonne ($5.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
8:45a.m. - 6:30p.m. GMT
Exchange
ICE
Point Value
$50
Expiration Date
09/13/19 (114 days)

Seasonal Chart

White Sugar #5 Oct '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Oct Contracts
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
323.00 +1.42%
on 05/21/19
348.90 -6.10%
on 04/25/19
-17.20 (-4.99%)
since 04/18/19
3-Month
323.00 +1.42%
on 05/21/19
373.70 -12.34%
on 02/25/19
-46.50 (-12.43%)
since 02/22/19
52-Week
323.00 +1.42%
on 05/21/19
390.00 -16.00%
on 10/24/18
-28.50 (-8.00%)
since 05/22/18

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Sugar Prices Close Lower as They Follow a Slump in Crude Oil

July NY world sugar #11 (SBN19) on Wednesday closed down by -0.19 (-1.61%) and Aug ICE London white sugar #5 (SWQ19) closed down by -3.50 (-1.07%). A slump in crude oil prices Wednesday undercut sugar...

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Sugar Prices Remain Bearish

11.10 coming

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 64% Sell with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 336.73
1st Resistance Point 332.17
Last Price 327.60s
1st Support Level 324.87
2nd Support Level 322.13

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52-Week High 390.00
Fibonacci 61.8% 364.41
Fibonacci 50% 356.50
Fibonacci 38.2% 348.59
Last Price 327.60s
52-Week Low 323.00

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