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White Sugar #5 Oct '19 (SWV19)

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White Sugar #5 Futures Market News and Commentary

Sugar Prices Close Lower on a Slide in Crude Prices and a Slump in the Brazilian Real

Oct NY world sugar #11 (SBV19) on Friday closed down by -0.11 (-0.95%), and Oct ICE London white sugar #5 (SWV19) closed down by -1.70 (-0.54%). Sugar prices moved lower Friday on weakness in crude oil and a slide in the Brazilian real. Escalation of the U.S./China trade war sent crude prices down to a 2-week low Friday after China announced plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. goods. Weaker crude prices undercut ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production than ethanol production, thus boosting sugar supplies. The Brazilian real tumbled to an 11-week low against the dollar Friday, which will encourage export selling by Brazil's sugar producers. Sugar prices also fell back Friday's after Unica reported that showed sugar production in Brazil's Center-South region in the first half of Aug rose by +24.27% y/y to 2.126 MMT, although cumulative sugar production in the 2019-20 marketing year through mid-Aug are down -6.3% y/y to 15.4574 MMT. Sugar prices on Tuesday posted 2-week lows on the outlook for robust sugar production in India, the world's second-largest sugar producer. Researcher Marex Spectron said Monday that beneficial weather could boost India 2019/20 sugar production to 30 MMT, which would be 6% higher than the 28.2 MMT estimate from the Indian Sugar Mills Association. Ample monsoon rains in India should benefit India's sugar crop after India's Meteorological Department on Aug 8 said India's July monsoon rains were 298.4 mm, 4.6% more than the long-term average. Another positive for sugar was the action by India's cabinet on July 24 to create a buffer stock of 4 million MT of sugar for 1-year starting Aug 1 in an attempt to lock up supply and support domestic sugar prices. Big Picture Sugar Market Factors: World sugar production in 2019/20 (Apr/Mar) will climb +1% y/y to 180.7 MMT (USDA) after the +0.6% y/y rise to a record 185.2 MMT in 2018/19 (ISO). The world sugar surplus in 2018/19 fell to 1.832 MMT from the larger 2017/18 surplus of 7.3 MMT (ISO). Production by Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, in 2019/20 will climb by +17.4% y/y to 34.1 MMT, after production in 2018/19 (Apr/Mar) fell -17.2% y/y to an 11-year low of 31.4 MMT (Conab). Production by India, the world's second largest sugar producer, in 2019/20 will fall -15% y/y to a 3-year low of 28 MT due to drought and a delayed monsoon season (India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd).
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