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Sugar #11 May '19 (SBK19)

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Sugar #11 Futures Market News and Commentary

NY Sugar Prices Trade Higher on Strength in the Brazilian Real

May NY world sugar #11 (SBK19) this morning is up +0.03 (+0.23%) and May ICE London white sugar (SWK19) is down -0.40 (-0.11%). Strength in the Brazilian real is lifting May NY sugar this morning as the real climbed to a 2-week high against the dollar, which discourages exports from Brazil's sugar producers. Sugar prices were undercut, however, by a decline in crude oil prices, which is negative for ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward sugar ethanol production rather than ethanol production, thus boosting sugar supplies. May NY sugar on Tuesday rallied to a 1-month high and May London sugar rose to a 3-week high on supply concerns and stronger demand. India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd. on Tuesday projected that India 2019/20 sugar production will fall by at least -5% y/y to a 3-year low of 30 MMT. Also, Indonesia, the world's largest sugar importer, may import more sugar this year after Indonesia's Sugar Refiners Association said refiners may import 3.2 MMT of raw sugar in 2019, up +5.3% y/y. In addition, Petrobras hiked Brazil's wholesale gasoline prices on Tuesday to 1.5970 reals/liter from 1.5581 reals/liter, which is positive for ethanol prices. Sugar prices are seeing underlying support from Unica's report last Tuesday that Brazil's 2018/19 Center-South sugar production during Oct-Jan was down -26.4% at 26.36 MMT, with 35.4% of cane used for sugar (down from 46.9% last year), and 64.56% of cane used for ethanol production (up from 53.1% last year).
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