Coffee Jul '26 (KCN26)
Coffee Futures Market News and Commentary
May arabica coffee (KCK26) on Monday closed up +2.65 (+0.90%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) did not trade with UK markets closed for the Easter Monday holiday.
Arabica coffee moved higher on Monday amid strength in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL). The real rose to a 3.5-week high on Monday, discouraging export sales from Brazil's coffee producers.
Gains in coffee were limited on Monday after StoneX projected the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025, the biggest surplus in 6 years.
Coffee prices have been under pressure recently amid expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop. On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 75.9 million bags, even higher than Sucafina's forecast of 75.4 million bags, up +15.5% y/y. On March 12, StoneX raised its Brazil 2026/27 coffee production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from a November estimate of 70.7 million bags.
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