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U.S. Dollar Index Sep '18 (DXU18)

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U.S. Dollar Index Futures Market News and Commentary

Dollar Index Climbs to a 2-Week High on Weakness in the British Pound and Chinese Yuan

The dollar index (DXY00) on Friday rose by +0.014 (+0.14%) to a 2-week high. June euro-fx futures (E6M9) closed down -11 (-0.10%) at a 2-week low and EUR/USD (^EURUSD) fell -0.0011 (-0.10%) to a 2-week low. June yen futures (J6M9) closed down -22 (-0.24%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) rose +0.09 (+0.08%). Weakness in the British pound and the Chinese yuan against the dollar Friday helped push the dollar index up to a 2-week high. GBP/USD fell to a 4-month low after a UK government spokesman said talks with the opposition Labour party had ended without reaching a Brexit deal, likely ending Prime Minister May's hopes of getting her Brexit deal approved by Parliament in another vote expected in early June. The Chinese yuan tumbled to a 5-month low against the dollar Friday after China signaled a lack of interest in resuming trade talks with the U.S. due to the current threat to raise tariffs. EUR/USD fell to a 2-week low after the 10-year German bund yield fell to -0.104%, just above Wednesday's 2-1/2 year low of -0.132%, which is negative for the euro's interest rate differentials. Losses in EUR/USD were limited Friday after the Eurozone Apr core CPI was revised upward to +1.3% y/y from the previously reported +1.2% y/y, the fastest pace of increase in 2 years, which is hawkish for European Central Bank policy. USD/JPY recovered from early losses and moved higher after stocks recovered from their worst levels, which reduced the safe-haven demand for the yen. Big Picture Dollar Factors: Bullish factors for the dollar index include (1) the Fed's balance sheet drawdown program through September and the Fed-dot forecast for one more rate hike in 2020 vs near-zero policy rates by the ECB and BOJ, (2) relative strength in the U.S. economy, and (3) the repatriation of U.S. corporate overseas cash under the 2018 tax law. Bearish factors include (1) market expectations for at least one Fed rate cut through 2020, (2) trade tensions and Washington political uncertainty, and (3) the wide U.S. budget and current account deficits. Bearish factors for EUR/USD include (1) the ECB's promise to leave interest rates unchanged at least through end-2019, (2) weak Eurozone economic growth, (3) the slump in the 10-year bund yield to a 2-1/2 year low of -0.132%, which undercuts the euro's interest rate differentials, and (4) Brexit risks.
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