
Following the double digit drops to start the week, front month beans are extending the drop another 18 to 19 cents in the front months. Sep beans are down 31 3/4 cents at midday on thin OI. Yesterday’s soybean selloff was predominantly long liquidation in September futures and net new selling in the rest. Overall open interest crept up 350 contracts. Soymeal futures are trading with $6.70 to $17.60 midday losses. BO futures are also red by 52 to 70 points so far.
The national average soybean basis from cmdtyView reads 43 cents under Sep for spot delivery at midday. That has firmed back up from Friday’s -$1 levels, and is down from 21 cents over when July rolled off the board. The 5-yr average soybean basis from their data is -53.8 cents going into FND.
USDA reported a 240k MT soybean sale to unknown this morning via mandatory announcement. The regular weekly reports were suspended until further notice – citing the new reporting system errors.
NOAA’s 7-day QPF shows mostly dry conditions for the corn belt. Northern KS, North Eastern IA, and most of the ECB will get some moisture through the week, though all of those regions top out at ~1/2”.
Crop Progress data from NASS showed 91% of soybeans had set pods through week 35. That compares to 92% on average. The weekly update also showed 4% of the crop had begun dropping leaves, trailing the 5-yr average pace by 3% points. National conditions converted to a 351 on the Brugler500 Index, which was 1 point higher than last week.
Private analyst Cordonnier sees the ‘22 U.S. soybean yield as 50.4 bpa, which is steady with their prior estimate but 1.5 bpa below the current USDA number.
ABIOVE estimated that 2022/23 Brazilian soybean production would hit 151 MMT (5.548 billion bushels!) on 42 million planted hectares. Datagro estimated the 2022/23 Brazilian bean crop at 151.8 MMT.
Sep 22 Soybeans are at $15.03, down 31 3/4 cents,
Nearby Cash is at $14.58 1/1, down 11 cents,
Nov 22 Soybeans are at $14.18 1/4, down 19 1/2 cents,
Jan 23 Soybeans are at $14.23, down 20 cents,
New Crop Cash is at $13.68 5/8, down 18 3/4 cents,