
Soybean futures are mostly 1 ¼ to 4 ½ cents higher this morning, Nearby contracts are up 13 to 20 ¾ cents. They posted sharp gains on Tuesday, with contracts mostly 17 to 28 ¾ cents higher. The nearby old crop contracts were up 48 ¼ to 73 ¾ cents (August) in very thin trade activity. Product values were a supporting factor. Nearby meal was up $14.90/ton, as soybean oil was 49 points higher. There have still been zero deliveries against August soybean futures, with the oldest long now dated 6/30/22. August OI was down to 231 contracts. There have also been zero soy oil deliveries, with the oldest long dated July 8. Remaining open interest there is only 34 contracts.
Preliminary open interest rose 3,374 contracts in beans on Tuesday, net new buying in a sharply rising market.
Crop Progress data from NASS showed the drop in condition ratings was mainly attributed to the WCB, with MN down 7 points in the Brugler500 Index, NE losing 8 points, ND dropping 13 and SD down 9 points. Ratings in IL were up 3 points, with IN 7 points higher and other “fringe” states seeing improvement.
The 7-day QPF shows much of the Corn Belt seeing little (.25”) to no rainfall over the next week. Looking to the middle of the month via the 8-14 day outlook shows a drop to near normal temps and below normal precip. The Rockies will get a surge as the high pumps moisture up from Baja.
A survey of analysts by Bloomberg showed old crop soybean stocks estimated at 225.6 mbu, a 10 mbu jump from the July USDA number. New crop is seen down just 5 to 225 mbu.
Aug 22 Soybeans closed at $16.93 1/4, up 73 3/4 cents, they are 20 ¾ cents this morning
Nearby Cash was $14.79 3/4, up 28 1/4 cents,
Sep 22 Soybeans closed at $15.12 1/4, up 48 1/4 cents, they are 13 cents this morning
Nov 22 Soybeans closed at $14.28 3/4, up 28 3/4 cents, they are 4 ½ cents this morning
New Crop Cash was $13.76, up 29 1/8 cents,