Shootin' the Bull about current events

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

3/19/2026

Live Cattle:

Fat futures were soft, but seemingly held together very well considering the impacts of the energy market. I have heard comments of "this will blow over".  I agree, it will, but business still has to be conducted, and many times on a daily basis.  Hence, regardless of whether blows over or not, decisions have to be made, and current price structure for some of the input costs maybe difficult to offset. Basis is expected to worsen and cattlemen remain bullish. Packers need to get really bullish fat cattle, and pay up significantly, to return input costs. 

Of interest was Darden Family Restaurant's comments from their 3rd quarter earning's statement.  The comment stated that Longhorn Steakhouse had performed better than other restaurants in their group.  They stated the demand for beef, and not having raised menu prices, kept volume up.  They noted as well of the new smaller portions dinners, recently added to Olive Garden, to have shown a large increase of sales for.  Consumers will be more money conscious going forward with the advent of higher fuel prices.       

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Feeder Cattle:

Basis widened on the opening and didn't look back.  Today's price action did nothing to confirm a direction.  The chart pattern from the February high appears as a flight of steps moving down.  If continues, a close under $339.00 May would be expected.  Cattle feeders will need to get much more bullish, and pay a much higher price than at present to produce returns on inventory purchased this year.  I believe there is widening division between what cattlemen think and what everyone else thinks.  

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​Corn:

Corn and beans were higher.  Both offered an opportunity to do some marketing at very close to previous high. As most markets have some influence from the oil market, the specific fundamentals of a commodity are taking a back seat.  For the moment, I go back to prior the energy rallying and say that there is going to be a large crop of corn and soybeans to market this year.   

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Energy:​

Energy has been mixed with diesel fuel leading the way, gasoline hot on it's heels, and crude oil, having seen both sides of unchanged today, is bringing up the rear. This current event of military action is as unpredictable as anything I've seen due to seemingly only a few creating the chaos.  I am in anticipation of significant unforeseen and unintended consequences to the recent military actions. I recommend not extending oneself too much under current circumstances.  

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Bonds:

​Bonds are a little higher with some yield curve spreading it looks like.  Inflation is soaring as the Fed continues to pump money into the system, the President is screaming for lower rates, and energy inflation a direct impact on business and consumer discretionary spending. There is a great deal to keep up with.  Be attentive to where your risk lies, and do something to help manage the adverse part, even if you don't want to.  

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​​​​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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