Top Stocks Today: 2 Bull Moves to Ride and 1 to Think Twice About

You wouldn’t have thought all the major indices would finish Monday in positive territory given the way they started, but that’s precisely what happened with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite up 0.50%, 0.83%, and 1.38%, respectively. 

All it took was President Trump telling reporters that the war in Iran would end “very soon” for the markets to reverse course and finish the day on a high note. 

If only a war were that easy to end. Just ask the Russians and Ukrainians. To cut and run at this point would likely lead to global instability on a scale we haven’t seen in years. But those answers are above my pay grade.  

I’m here to talk about bullish price surprises from yesterday. The top 100 had standard deviations ranging from 4.49 to 2.08, indicating these stocks were considerably more volatile than their 20-day averages. 

You would think that with so much uncertainty, investors would be reducing their risk exposures and staying on the sidelines. Yesterday’s bullish prices suggest otherwise. 

Based on the top 100 bullish price surprises from Monday, I’ve got two to ride, and one to think twice about. 

Ezcorp: Growth at a Reasonable Price

Ezcorp (EZPW) had a standard deviation of 2.46 yesterday, while its shares gained 5.37% on the day. They’re up 377.46% over the past five years.

In times of instability, it makes sense to lean into businesses that generate stable growth, both in terms of sales and profits. The Texas-based operator of pawn stores does both.

It has grown considerably since its founding in 1989. It went public in December 1991, selling shares at $9.75. A $1,000 investment in its IPO shares is worth $8,212.31 a share, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4%. 

That’s not a great return. However, it’s important to consider the company’s business today compared to 2011, when it hit an all-time high of $38.66. 

Back then, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, it had annual revenue of $853 million, 16.3% higher than in 2010, with an operating profit of $184 million, for a 21.6% operating margin.

In its latest fiscal year ended Sept. 30, 2025, it had revenue of $1.274 billion, 9.7% higher than in 2024, with an operating profit of $150.2 million, for a 11.8% operating margin.

Remember, in 2011, the U.S. was still recovering from the financial crisis; the unemployment rate was still high at 9.0%, double where it is today. People were pawning their possessions to pay their bills.

So, yes, the business is somewhat cyclical based on economic conditions, but it’s also more diversified, with operations in the U.S. (544 as of Sept. 30, 2025), Mexico (622), and Guatemala/El Salvador/Honduras (193).

It continues to pursue acquisitions to grow its business. In the past three fiscal years, it has acquired $50 million in pawn stores in the U.S. and Mexico. In January, it acquired 12 pawn stores in Texas for $27.5 million, its largest acquisition to date. 

Trading at 14.7 times Wall Street’s fiscal 2026 (September year-end) earnings per share estimate of $1.80, and 13.2 times the 2027 estimate of $2.00, you’re still getting reasonable growth for a reasonable value, despite its big gains in 2026.  

OSI Systems Has Legs

OSI Systems (OSIS) had a standard deviation of 2.21 yesterday, while its shares gained 5.57% on the day. They’re up 188.24% over the past five years. 

I don’t know where I read it, but there is evidence that investors are leaning into stocks of companies that actually make things. I’m not talking about Nvidia (NVDA) or other hyper-growth AI companies, but businesses like OSI. 

Its three businesses: Security (70% of revenue), Optoelectronics (20%), and Health Care (10%), make products that include screening systems at airports, optical sensors for all kinds of defense and aerospace uses, and patient monitoring systems for hospitals and other medical facilities. 

I’m not going to pretend that I know OSI inside and out; I don’t, but it plays in three awfully important sandboxes whose needs aren’t going away anytime soon. 

Barchart’s Technical Opinion says OSI is a 96% Buy. Seven analysts cover OSI. Five rate it a Buy (4.43 out of 5), with a $300 target price, slightly above its current share price. 

To keep moving higher, it will need to continue delivering healthy results.  

In Q2 2026, its revenues grew 10.5% year-0ver-year to $464.1 million, $11 million higher than the analysts’ estimate. Its adjusted EPS of $2.58 was six cents better than expected, and 6.6% higher than a year ago. It finished the quarter with a $1.8 billion backlog, with a large chunk of which came from its Security business. 

Following its second-quarter results, it raised its 2026 guidance at the end of January. It now expects adjusted earnings per share of $10.43 at the midpoint of its outlook, 11.5% higher than in 2025. 

Over the past five years, OSI has grown its revenue and EBIT (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) by double digits. As long as it continues to do that, I don’t see why its share price can’t increase by 188% over the next five years.  

Argan’s Valuation Has Boomed  

Argan (AGX) had a standard deviation of 2.56 yesterday, while its shares gained 12.60% on the day. They’re up 755.43% over the past five years. 

When I say avoid, I’m not saying I don’t like the company or its stock. In August 2025, I wrote about the strength of its business, especially its construction-related services for data centers, which operate under its Power Industry Services segment, which generated nearly 78% of the company’s total revenue in Q3 2026, ended Oct. 31, 2025.

There’s no question that AI has accelerated data center growth in the last 12-24 months. However, the company’s Q3 2026 revenue actually declined by 2.3%, compared to 56.9% growth a year earlier. That’s something to consider at current valuations. 

Reasons for the slowdown include several major projects ending in the previous year and the timing of new project starts. Fair enough. 

What’s kept the share price moving higher in 2026 is its backlog. It was $3.0 billion as of Oct. 31, 2025, 118% higher than at Jan. 31, its 2025 year-end, and 275% higher than Q3 2025. 

That’s led to a considerable increase in its free cash flow. As of Q3 2026, it was $283 million, nearly double the $142 million as of Q3 2024. As a result, its free cash flow margin improved by 13.3 percentage points to 30.9%. 

The troubling part is the free cash flow yield. It’s fallen from 16.0% a year ago [$142 million FCF / $888.3 million EV] to 4.9% today [$283 million FCF / $5.75 billion EV]. 

While I consider anything between 4% and 8% to be fair value -- meaning if you hold for 2-3 years, you should look back without regret -- it’s gone from being dirt-cheap to bordering on expensive.

Proceed with caution despite the big gain yesterday from getting added to the S&P SmallCap 600 Index. 

An entry point in the high $300s might be more appropriate.