What a $20 Million Horse Race and the Stock Market Have in Common: The Emerging Market Derby of 2026

It is hard to escape the similarities between the modern market and the wagering structure of the sport of horse racing. So, with the recent completion of the Saudi Cup, a race with $20 million in prize money that dwarfs the rest, I decided it was not too soon to play the horse-race card again.

After all, media outlets everywhere are promoting the fact that capital is beginning to migrate from stretched U.S. valuations toward emerging markets. Those smaller markets now drive a majority of global growth in real terms. And even if they didn't, the market mindset tends to at least temporarily play the “catch up” game. Like a racehorse down the stretch, jockey aboard, trying to time their way to the finish line without running out of gas. 

I have followed single-country funds since they were only in mutual fund form, before exchange-traded funds (ETFs) even existed. But now, decades later, I find that several specific country ETFs are making headlines. In some cases, it is due to their sudden bursts of speed. In other situations, it is structural shifts at the domestic level that are driving the investor interest.

So, with that as a proposition, and with the stock market’s reputation as a “casino with better lighting,” let’s try to handicap the sprint from here to mid-year among some of the more interesting single-country ETFs. By "interesting," I mean technically. That is, their chart patterns strike me as either encouraging or very discouraging, not stuck in the middle of the pack.

The Line

Presented in parentheses are each ETF’s odds of being the best performer in the group by the end of June.

Brazil (7-1)

It has become the preferred tool for Latin American exposure, with the Brazil Ishares MSCI ETF (EWZ) posting its strongest inflows in over a decade last month. Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller’s family office was recently noted for adding to the position, just before a 17% jump in January.

Turkey (10-1)

For Turkey, we’re looking at the Turkey Ishares MSCI ETF (TUR). After years of hyperinflation, Turkey is watching a potential “normalization" play. The Finance Minister expects annual inflation to drop toward 20% by late February 2026. The Central Bank is slowing its rate-cutting pace to ensure this recovery is permanent, attracting foreign carry trade inflows into the lira.

Vietnam (3-1)

Vietnam is currently the play for those betting on the move away from China-centric manufacturing. A final review in March 2026 is expected to pave the way for a transition from “frontier market” to “secondary emerging market” status on Sept. 21. While the long-term outlook is upbeat, Vaneck Vietnam ETF (VNM) remains volatile, with maximum drawdowns of 45% over the last decade.

Poland (5-2)

For Poland, we’re looking at the Poland Ishares MSCI ETF (EPOL). Poland is entering what Prime Minister Donald Tusk calls a "year of faster growth." GDP growth is projected to reach 3.5% to 3.7% in 2026, supported by a nearly 10% rise in investment through infrastructure and technology advancements. A tight labor market with 3.1% unemployment is keeping private consumption robust as real incomes rise.

South Korea (5-1)

While India and China often dominate the emerging markets debate, South Korea has been the quiet winner of early 2026. Market reforms and the "Value Up" program — essentially the government pumping up the local stock market — targeting a Kospi index level of 5,000 helped the South Korea Ishares MSCI ETF (EWY) return 119% over the 12 months ending January 2026.

ROAR Reads

VNM and EPOL charts looked the best to me of the five above. With the moves in emerging market ETFs in recent months, I didn’t expect to find any “cheap” country ETFs. And I didn’t. 

But that doesn’t mean some of these charts can take a mid-race breather and still come back to finish strong in final strides. Of the five above, EPOL and VNM look most likely to cross the wire first by June-end.

Rob Isbitts created the ROAR Score, based on his 40+ years of technical analysis experience. ROAR helps DIY investors manage risk and create their own portfolios. For Rob's written research, check out ETFYourself.com.