1/29/26
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THE GAPS IN THE CHARTS FOR THE FATS AND FEEDERS BELOW
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The Cattle Market were a little lower today, while the Hogs settled positive today. April'26 Live Cattle were 1.45 lower today and settled at 237.27 ½. Today's high was 239.72 ½ and that is the new 1-month high as well. Today's low was 237.10 and the 1-month low is 229.00. Since 12/29 April'26 Live Cattle are 7.75 higher or more than 3%. The March'26 Feeders were less than a dollar lower today. The March'26 Feeder Cattle were 72 ½ cents higher today and settled at 365.12 ½. Today's high was 367.97 ½ and that is the new 1-month high as well. Today's low was 365.00 and the 1-month low is 341.15. Since 12/29 March'26 Feeder Cattle are 23.45 higher or almost 7%. The Hogs traded higher today. April'26 Lean Hogs were 30 cents higher today and settled at 95.45. Today's high was 96.00 and the 1-month high is 97.55. Today's low was 94.90 and the 1-month low is 88.95. Since 12/29 April'26 Lean Hogs are 6.05 higher or almost 7%. There was not much action in the Livestock Markets today, even with the Fats and Feeders both making new 1-month highs yesterday and then again today. Beef export sales were 65% higher last week when compared to the 4-week average. There was a small sale in the cash market at 236 yesterday, but no sales were reported today, and I am hearing of more passes at a 236 cash bid in the North. The Cattle Markets closed lower today, but not much lower, and I feel we can see higher prices again tomorrow and could set another new 1-month high. Tomorrow, the Cattle Inventory Report will be released at 2:00pm central time, and most people I have spoken with believe it will be a Bullish report and reconfirm the tight Cattle supply. If this is the case, then I feel the Fats and Feeders could start their run toward the last remaining gaps above Monday morning, and new contract highs are a real possibility. I recommend having a Bullish option strategy in place in the Feeders early tomorrow. I do not know where we will open tomorrow, but my best guess is that the Cattle Markets could close on their highs tomorrow, just before the Report. This is what I had to say about the Cattle Markets on Tuesday “The Cattle on Feed Report reconfirmed that the US Cattle inventory remains tight. The Commitment of Traders also showed that the Funds are also very long and adding to their position. The last week has been very cold and that has likely added to animal stress, and it is supposed to remain cold throughout the Plaines till the end of the weekend. Brazil is about to start a 2-year cycle of tight cattle numbers later this year, with an estimated production drop of 2%. Demand has been strong and shows no sign of slowing amid the Stock Markets near record highs. The Feeder Index was higher again today, up 1.16 to 364.73. The US Southern Border remains closed to Cattle from Mexico, as cases of the Screwworm continue to pop up in Mexico, WITH ZERO CASES IN THE UNITED STATES. The US Dollar is taking a beating and that is helping all commodity prices and could help beef exports. The Cold Storage Report was released Friday, and it had the lowest reading for the month of December since 2009. The Cash Market remains strong and was higher again last week. The 1-month highs in the Cattle Markets are not far away, and open interest continues to rise in the differed months. I feel we could see the Fats and Feeders trade through the 1-month highs and then trade up to the one remaining gap above. The 1-month high in April'26 Live Cattle is 239.05 and that is just 1.65 higher from today's close, and the Gap above starts at 246.25 and would be filled if 250.25 was traded, with the contract high sitting just above at 250.92 ½. The 1-month high in the March'26 Feeder Cattle is 365.00 and that is just 3.00 higher from today's close, and the Gap above starts at 370.60 and would be filled if 376.70 was traded, with the contract high sitting just above at 378.60. I feel we could see new contract highs in the Fats and Feeders sooner than later for all of the reasons stated above. I am structuring new trades tonight, and if I have your email, you will be receiving them, if I do not have your email, let me know if you are interested in seeing them, as they will be based on potentially new higher prices. The path higher toward contract highs will be easier this time, as the tracks have already been laid.” The trades I structured and sent out Tuesday night are shown below. The Hogs were down more than a buck and a half yesterday but were able to trade a little higher today. I still feel a bigger break is necessary before any sustainable rally in the Hogs could occur from here. Give me a call if you have any questions. I will be in Nashville next week for Cattle Con, in booth 752, stop by and say hello.
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NOW IS THE TIME TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT BEFORE IT IS JULY AGAIN
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BELOW IS A DIRECT LINK TO FILL OUT ACCOUNT PAPERWORK - PLEASE CALL ME IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS.
https://portal2.straitsfinancial.com/Identity/Account/Register?brokerId=978
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Having a Trading or Hedging Account is essential for your business to be successful. Market volatility has increased across all commodities over the last 12 months, and I expect it to continue to increase over the next 12 months as well. Opening an account in the future, will not help you if you need access now. To be successful, you need to be able to manage risk in real time. If you are proactive now, you will have the ability to be reactive when you need to be. You can be Prepared and Patient at the same time. Call me or hit the direct link above.
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Through Walsh Trading I have built the best 5-man team in the business. Give me a call and let me show you how the Pure Hedge Division can help your bottom line.
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The Grain Markets were mixed today, with the Wheat continuing to trade higher today. March'26 Soybeans were 2 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 1072 ½. Today's high was 1085 ½ and that is the new 1-month high as well. Today's low was 1069 and the 1-month low is 1037 ¾. Since 12/29 March'26 Soybeans are 8 ¾ cents higher or almost 1%. March'26 Corn was able to stay positive today. March'26 Corn was ¾ of a cent higher today and settled at 430 ¾. Today's high was 434 and the 1-month high is 448 ¾. Today's low was 428 and the 1-month low is 417 ¼. Since 12/29 March'26 Corn is 11 ½ cents lower or more than 2 ½%. The Wheat gain more than a nickel today. March'26 Wheat was 5 ½ cents higher today and settled at 541 ½. Today's high was 544 ¼ and that is the new 1-month high as well. Today's low was 533 ¾ and the 1-month and contract low is 501 ½. Since 12/29 March'26 Wheat is 28 ½ cents higher or more than 5 ½%. Export sales were released this morning, and they did not look great for the Soybeans, but export numbers for Soybean Meal were strong, and export number for Soybean Oil were great, right at the top of estimates. Soybean Oil Sales are now more than 62% of the forecast for 2025/2026, and the 5-year average for this time of year is less than 46%, that is a 16% increase already. Export numbers for Corn were good, but not as good as last week, and the export number for Whet were very strong, at the top of estimates. The Soybeans did what I thought they could do, and broke 13 ¼ cents after making a new 1-month high and trading up to 1085 ½, just above the 1080 level where I was looking to sell them. The Corn could trade a little higher from here, but I do not see a big rally coming. The Wheat could definitely trade higher from here, toward the 580 level. The demand for Palm Oil and Soybean Oil is only increasing, and today's pullback was healthy for the market, and I feel it was a great buying opportunity. I believe demand could outpace supply over the next several months. Tomorrow is the last trading day of the month, and today the March'26 Soybean Oil traded to within 12 tics of the 1-month high at 54.95, and I feel we can see it trade through that level tomorrow. I recommend buying Soybean Oil early and often. This is what I said about the Grains on Tuesday “The demand for Corn is strong, but there is plenty of it still. If the March'26 Corn traded at or near the 450 level, I would look to sell it, with the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low at 450 ½. The Soybeans are in a similar situation, but they do have the help from the Soybean Oil. I would look to sell the Beans if they traded at or near the 1080 level, as the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 1082. There could be some winter kill in the Wheat crop, but it is too early to tell. With the cheap US Dollar helping all Commodities, it will not take much to send the Wheat Market higher, with contract lows 21.75 from todays close and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low number at 589 ½, or 66.25 from today's close. I still feel we can see the Soybean Oil trade much higher from here, and the Crude Oil market rallied about 50 cents after the Grain Markets closed today. The upside potential for the rest of the month and beyond looks large to me.” I think we could see a very busy trading day in the Livestock and Grain Markets tomorrow. Give me a call if you have any questions or would like to open an account. There are Trade examples below. Have a great night.
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THE REST IS FROM LAST WEEK BELOW
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Not much new here, and I still feel the Soybeans can drift lower and the Corn could soon see 400. Soybean Oil stocks were released today, and they were below estimates… It could be a special year in the Soybean Oil. The Wheat is a wild card and settled just 9 cents above the contract low again. If the Wheat makes a new contract low, I recommend buying it. This is what I said last week 1/8/26 “The Bean Oil looks ready to charge ahead and could leave the rest of the Grains behind for a while. Indonesia, the world's largest producer of Palm Oil, has come out with a new plan to seize 4 or 5 million hectares of private plantations of Palm Oil. This is in addition to the more than 4 million hectares the Indonesia government seized and put under government control last year. Obviously, they must know they have a problem, and there might not be enough to go around. Indonesia also has a mandatory 40% Palm Oil biofuel blend rate and plans to increase that palm oil blend rate to 50% this year. Export taxes on Palm Oil have also increased and are currently 10%. This alone could make all vegetable oils much more expensive, and if they have a possible export ban, then Soybean Oil and Canola Oil could shoot to the moon. More Palm Oil plantation seizures just ahead of a blend rate increase sends the signal that stocks could drop quickly, and they could inevitably be short of what they need. Malaysia also plans on increasing its Palm Oil biofuel blend rate this year, and Brazil is increasing its Soybean Oil Biofuel blend rate this year as well. It is all setting up what could be a dramatic price increase in the vegetable oil markets. The US government is supposed to release their blend rate later this month, and I feel we could see an increase here as well. Today's weekly export sales for Soybean Oil were above the highest estimates, and for the 2025/2026 marketing year sales have reached over 70% of the USDA forecast, and the 5-year average for this time of year is just over 40%. It looks like the buying has begun. Today, May'26 Soybean Oil closed at 49.97 and I feel it could trade into the mid to high 50's, with the September'26 contract month in the 60's. May'26 Soybean Oil Options Expire 4/24/26 (106 Days).” It was reported today that Palm Oil production in Malaysia last month was down 5 ½% from the prior month. This has already tightened the Palm Oil supply. In the same time frame, shipments rose over 8%. It was also reported that exports of Palm Oil products rose a staggering 17%-29% over the first 10-days of this year when compared to December. India is expected to start buying Palm Oil this month, as their purchases were low in December. In addition to this, it looks like China and Indonesia could start buying Palm Oil as well this month. With a low supply, and a high demand, the price of Palm Oil looks like it could soon be out of reach, making other vegetable much more attractive, especially the Soybean Oil and the Canola Oil. I will say it again, this could be a very special year for the Soybean Oil Market, as prices have already started to rise, and the May'26 Soybean Oil was almost 2% higher today alone. I have new trades with incredible risk/reward ratios. Give me a call if you would like to know more. Have a great night.
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REASONS WHY I AM STILL BULLISH SOYBEAN OIL - I FEEL RIGHT NOW IS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY
Here is why I like the Soybean Oil. The Palm Oil supply is getting tight, and export controls seem very possible later this year. The Indonesian Government must be worried about their supply, as they seized land in Palm Oil producing regions and placed them under State Owned Control. At the same time, the production and export supplies of Sunflower Oil are expected to decline, as the price continues to climb and make cheaper Soybean Oil more attractive. Sunflower Oil supplies are already tight, as production estimates have decreased throughout Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, which will limit the amount of Sunflower seed crushing, again making the cheaper Soybean Oil more attractive. Biofuel percentages are set to increase in Brazil, Indonesia, and Malaysia, and I would not be surprised if the Biofuel blend rates were raised domestically as well. Argentina has already sold most of their Soybeans to China, so their crushing will be limited as well. The Russia/Ukraine war has intensified and the Ports in Odesa, and their grain terminals have been hit, along with the railroads and a Soybean shipment at sea. I also learned a Sunflower Oil terminal was bombed as well. all of this puts a tighter squeeze on the vegetable Oil Markets, as demand is already very strong, with Soybean Oil sales almost hitting 50% of the USDA's forecast for 2025-2026. The 5-year average this time of year is under 32%. It all points to what could be a very dramatic price increase in the Soybean Oil Market, along with all the other reasons. I have continued to buy Soybean Oil Future Spreads and Options Spreads, with a new target level of 64.00-66.00. The market breaking this week was another unexpected opportunity, and I took advantage of it, and will continue to do so, with Spreads in the Futures and Options. I have 3-month, 6–month, and 12-month strategies completed, and ready to go. Give me a call if you would like to know more.
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BELOW ARE THE TRADES I STRUCTURED AND SENT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT 1/27/26
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2-YEAR APRIL'26 LEAN HOG CHART BELOW - CONTRACT HIGH 97.55
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2-YEAR JULY'26 LEAN HOG CHART BELOW - CONTRACT HIGH 110.30
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CALL ME
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WATCH IF THE NEXT GAP WILL BE FILLED IN THE APRIL'26 LIVE CATTLE @ 250.25 - CURRENTLY THE CONTRACT HIGH IS 250.92 ½
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WATCH IF THE NEXT GAP WILL BE FILLED IN THE MARCH'26 FEEDER CATTLE @ 376.70 - CURRENTLY THE CONTRACT HIGH IS 378.60
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WATCH IF THE NEXT GAP WILL BE FILLED IN THE APRIL'26 FEEDER CATTLE @ 376.50 - CONTRACT HIGH IS 378.45
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THIS WEEKS WALSH GAMMA TRADER FROM 1/26/26 BELOW.
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If you don't like the customer service or personal attention you are receiving from your broker, you have options, and you don't have to stay there. I can have your new account open in 1-2 days. Call me anytime 312-957-8079 BALLEN@WALSHTRADING.COM Sign Up Now
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If you would like to open an account, please use this direct link https://portal2.straitsfinancial.com/Identity/Account/Register?brokerId=978
.
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Having a Trading or Hedging Account is essential for your business to be successful. Market volatility has increased across all commodities over the last 12 months, and I expect it to continue to increase over the next 12 months as well. Opening an account in the future, will not help you if you need access now. To be successful, you need to be able to manage risk in real time. If you are proactive now, you will have the ability to be reactive when you need to be. You can be Prepared and Patient at the same time. Call me or hit the direct link above.
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Thank you to all of my Canadian Customers. If you live in Alberta or Ontario, you are able to open an account in the USA. Hopefully we can work with the Province of Saskatchewan, and all Canadian Provinces soon. Your ability to open an account in the US is blocked by your Provincial Governments, not by the United States.
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Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it.
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Most Recent Walsh Gamma Trader Link - Walsh Gamma Trader
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GOD BLESS AMERICA
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Give me a call if you have any questions.
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Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312-957-8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
311 South Wacker Drive
Suite 540 Chicago, Illinois 60606
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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