Space company Firefly Aerospace (FLY) is set to report its second-quarter results on Aug. 11, after the market closes. Prior to that, the company is facing tailwinds from a couple of NASA contracts.
The company, which has completed eight space missions until now, landed a $144 million NASA Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) contract for its Blue Ghost lunar lander. This builds on the Blue Ghost Mission 1 (a successful venture of NASA and Firefly) that traveled to the Moon’s near side. The upcoming mission, expected to be launched in 2028, will once again travel to the Moon’s near side carrying NASA science instruments.
Firefly also locked in a $13 million subcontract from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to deliver the aeroshell for NASA’s SkyFall mission to Mars, also scheduled for a 2028 launch. Earlier, the company had landed a $75 million NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) subcontract to deliver four drones to the Moon’s south pole as part of the MoonFall mission.
The NASA contracts highlight the company’s growing demand as a commercial space company. Against this backdrop, we take a closer look at Firefly Aerospace ahead of its earnings report.
About Firefly Aerospace Stock
Firefly Aerospace is a space and defense company that designs, builds, and operates launch vehicles, lunar landers, and other space systems. It supports government and commercial missions from launch to landing and in-space operations.
The company’s headquarters is in Cedar Park, Texas, where it also houses spacecraft production and mission control. Its business is built around reliable, repeatable space missions for customers on Earth, in orbit, and on the Moon. The company has a market capitalization of $3.738 billion.
Firefly’s stock had an immensely successful IPO last year. Its stock jumped more than 34% on its Nasdaq debut, and the market noted the company’s clientele, which included key defense contractors and a close partnership with NASA.
As the company continues to post heavy net losses amid valuation fears and dilution concerns due to a massive offering, the stock has taken a hit this year. FLY’s shares are down 4.42% over the past six months, while they have dropped 19.27% over the past month. The stock reached a six-month low of $17.71 on July 29, but is up 31.7% from that level.
Despite the sell-off, the valuation remains high. Firefly Aerospace’s forward price-to-sales ratio of 8.70 times is significantly higher than the industry average of 1.93 times.
Firefly Aerospace Posted Record Q1 Revenue
In the first quarter, Firefly’s revenue climbed 44.8% year-over-year (YOY) to a quarterly record of $80.88 million. This proved better than the $73.80 million that Wall Street analysts had expected. The company’s quarterly highlights included a U.S. Space Force contract for SciTec to support the space-based interceptor program under Golden Dome. Firefly also processed thousands of threats in the first 30 days of the Iran conflict.
However, its profitability still remains in the red. The second quarter, for all its growth, was marked by deepening losses. Firefly’s non-GAAP net loss increased 8% from the prior-year period to $73.95 million. However, as the number of shares increased, non-GAAP net loss per share dropped from $5.09 to $0.46, better than the $0.50 per share loss that analysts were expecting.
Wall Street analysts have a mixed view about Firefly’s future earnings trajectory. For the current year, the company’s loss per share is expected to deepen by 41.7% YOY to $1.97. However, next year, loss per share is projected to reduce by 36.04% to $1.26. For the upcoming second-quarter results, analysts expect losses to reduce by 90.6% YOY to $0.50.
What Do Analysts Think About Firefly Aerospace’s Stock?
Last month, Wells Fargo analyst David Strauss initiated coverage of Firefly Aerospace with an “Equal Weight” rating and a $25 price target. As the company awaits further progress on its Alpha and Blue Ghost projects, the analyst expects growth. However, its Eclipse development spend might restrict EBITDA progress in 2027 and 2028.
KeyBanc analysts upgraded Firefly to “Overweight” and gave a $50 price target. The upgrade was enacted after the company’s contract announcements with NASA, which support its lunar platform, including Blue Ghost and Elytra. The firm also expects heightened missile tracking demand amid the Iran war, which is set to be a near-term tailwind.
Firefly Aerospace has gained popularity on Wall Street, with analysts awarding it a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating. Of the 11 analysts rating the stock, a majority of seven analysts have rated it a “Strong Buy,” while four analysts are playing it safe with a “Hold” rating. The consensus price target of $41.60 represents a 78.3% upside from current levels. The Street-high price target of $60 indicates a 157.2% upside.
On the date of publication, Anushka Dutta did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
