S&P Futures Gain With All Eyes on Key U.S. PCE Inflation Data

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are trending up +0.16% this morning, extending their advance toward a new all-time high, while investors look ahead to the release of the Federal Reserve’s first-line inflation gauge.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed mixed. Chip stocks retreated, with Intel (INTC) sliding over -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and ON Semiconductor (ON) falling more than -4%. Also, Snowflake (SNOW) slumped over -11% as the cloud storage company’s Q4 product revenue guidance disappointed investors. In addition, Genesco (GCO) plummeted more than -30% after the company posted downbeat Q3 results and cut its full-year guidance. On the bullish side, Dollar General (DG) surged over +14% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the budget retailer posted better-than-expected Q3 results and raised its full-year guidance. 

The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week unexpectedly fell by -27K to a 3-year low of 191K, compared with the 219K expected. Separately, U.S. factory orders rose +0.2% m/m in September, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m.

“Overall, the net takeaway from the [jobless claims] data served to confirm the crosscurrents evident in the labor landscape,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. The core PCE price index for September was originally scheduled for release on October 31st, but was delayed due to the government shutdown. Economists, on average, forecast that the core PCE price index will stand at +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y in September, the same as in August.

“[Recent] soft core CPI and PPI reports suggest that tariffs continue to have more bark than bite with regard to inflation, and this should also be reflected in [the] September core PCE deflator,” according to ING economist James Knightley. 

U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect September Personal Spending to rise +0.3% m/m and Personal Income to grow +0.3% m/m, compared to the August figures of +0.6% m/m and +0.4% m/m, respectively.

The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today. Economists foresee the preliminary December figure coming in at 52.0, compared to 51.0 in November.

The Fed’s Consumer Credit report will be released today as well. Economists expect the U.S. Consumer Credit to be $11.8 billion in October, compared to the previous figure of $13.1 billion.

Meanwhile, the U.S. November jobs report, originally scheduled for release today, was pushed back to December 16th due to the shutdown. That release will also incorporate the October payroll figures.

U.S. rate futures have priced in an 87.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 12.8% chance of no rate change at next week’s monetary policy meeting.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.110%, up +0.02%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.26% this morning, adding to the week’s gains amid optimism over a Fed rate cut next week. Mining and industrial stocks advanced on Friday. The benchmark index is on track to notch its second consecutive weekly gain. Investors also digested final GDP data from the region. Eurostat reported on Friday that the Eurozone economy expanded at a quicker pace than initially estimated in the third quarter, supported by a rebound in investment spending. Separate data showed that Germany’s monthly factory orders rose far more than expected in October, indicating that the sector remains resilient despite trade headwinds. Meanwhile, Citigroup set its 2026 year-end target for the STOXX 600 index at 640 and upgraded the auto, industrials, chemicals, and basic resources sectors on Friday, largely driven by fiscal spending and a favorable monetary policy backdrop. Investors are awaiting the vote on the pensions bill in the German parliament while also keeping an eye on U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to an end. Investor focus is also on key U.S. inflation data due later in the day. In corporate news, Swiss Re AG (SREN.Z.IX) slid over -5% after the reinsurer announced its 2026 targets, which fell short of analysts’ expectations.

Germany’s Factory Orders, France’s Industrial Production, Eurozone’s GDP, and Eurozone’s Employment Change data were released today.

The German October Factory Orders rose +1.5% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m.

The French October Industrial Production unexpectedly rose +0.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m.

Eurozone’s GDP came in at +0.3% q/q and +1.4% y/y in the third quarter, compared to expectations of +0.2% q/q and +1.4% y/y.

Eurozone’s Employment Change arrived at +0.2% q/q and +0.6% y/y in the third quarter, stronger than expectations of +0.1% q/q and +0.5% y/y.

Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.70%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -1.05%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, snapping a three-session losing streak amid renewed optimism surrounding the nation’s chipmakers. Sentiment improved after Moore Threads, often referred to as “China’s Nvidia,” jumped nearly fivefold in its trading debut as investors bet the company would benefit from Beijing’s push to bolster domestic chip production. Also aiding sentiment, insurance stocks rallied after the sector’s regulator said it would reduce the risk factor for insurers holding certain stocks, a move that could lower capital requirements and free up additional funds for investment. The benchmark index posted a modest weekly gain. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference later this month. China’s leadership is expected to outline key policy priorities for the world’s second-largest economy in 2026 and may signal whether additional stimulus is on the horizon. Samuel Tse, senior economist at DBS, said, “The market is anticipating a more optimistic policy tone from the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference,” adding that “key policy directions are likely to include stronger consumption support through more forceful subsidies, increased job creation, and an improved social safety net.” In corporate news, Baidu climbed over +5% in Hong Kong after Reuters reported that Kunlunxin, the search giant’s AI chip unit, was preparing for an initial public offering in Hong Kong.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today after downbeat household spending data underscored the scourge of inflation and bolstered expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike later this month. Brokerage and automobile stocks led the declines on Friday. Still, the benchmark index notched a weekly gain. Government data released on Friday showed that Japanese household spending unexpectedly fell at the fastest rate in about two years in October from a year earlier, heightening concerns about the economic outlook. At the same time, preliminary data showed that Japan’s leading economic indicators index, which gauges the economic outlook for a few months ahead based on data such as job offers and consumer sentiment, rose to a 17-month high in October. Meanwhile, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield climbed to an 18-year high on Friday as expectations for a BOJ rate hike firmed. Bloomberg reported on Friday that BOJ officials are prepared to raise interest rates at a policy meeting later this month, assuming there is no major shock to the economy or financial markets. The central bank will also signal that it will continue to raise rates if its economic outlook materializes, while remaining cautious about how far rates will ultimately be increased, the report said. Bank of America economist Takayasu Kudo said the BOJ is expected to keep raising its policy rate every six months following a hike in December. In other news, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government will carefully consider fiscal discipline as concerns over the country’s debt situation have driven a surge in long-dated government bond yields. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +0.71% to 28.32.

The Japanese October Household Spending unexpectedly fell -3.5% m/m and -3.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.7% m/m and +1.1% y/y.

The Japanese October Leading Index stood at 110.0, stronger than expectations of 109.3.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Rubrik (RBRK) jumped over +19% in pre-market trading after the data security company posted upbeat Q3 results and issued above-consensus Q4 revenue guidance.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) climbed more than +5% in pre-market trading after the retailer reported stronger-than-expected Q3 results and raised its full-year guidance.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) slumped over -9% in pre-market trading after the IT company posted weaker-than-expected FQ4 revenue and gave a soft FQ1 revenue forecast.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - December 5th

Victoria’s Secret Co (VSCO), KNOT Offshore Partners LP (KNOP), Tuniu Corp (TOUR).