Live Cattle (December)
December live cattle futures gained 1.12 for the week, settling at 215.57, that was about $11 off the low of the week. As mentioned multiple times last week (including last Monday’s video), Monday’s locked limit options trade and overall volume was a pretty good indication that the panic some may have experienced was more emotional than what the market was actually saying. Does that mean a the low is in, now, but to us in indicates that a lot of the excess froth has been removed from the market which could set us up for a little more of a “normal” trade into the end of the year.
Resistance: 210.97-211.25**, 212.875-213.57**
Pivot: 208.27
Support: 206.00*, 202.32-202.82**, 195.42**
Daily Cattle and Beef Summary
Cutout values were softer in Friday’s afternoon report, with choice cuts 1.46 lower to 366.82 and select cuts 4.46 lower to 351.05. The 5 area average price for live steers came in at 209.34. Daily slaughter was reported at 112k head. The CME Feeder Cattle Index is at 318.76, with the NBW Real Time Index at 326.37 this morning.
Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 12.1.25)
Below is a look at historical price averages for February futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Check out the charts here: Is the Low in for Cattle? - Blue Line Futures
Illustration by Freepik Storyset
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Performance Disclaimer
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. Seasonal Disclaimer This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.
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