Why Analysts Are Divided Over Circle (CRCL) Stock

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) shares opened in the red on Aug. 3 as Wall Street analysts issued conflicting calls on the NYSE-listed stablecoin company behind USDC. TD Cowen analysts initiated coverage with a “Buy” rating today, but Morgan Stanley recommended against betting on a swift recovery in CRCL in the back half of 2026. 

Circle stock has been in a sharp downtrend in recent months, currently down more than 50% versus its May high. 

Why TD Cowen Recommends Buying Circle Stock

TD Cowen’s senior analyst Bryan Bergin believes CRCL shares could hit $82 by year-end, which signals potential upside of more than 35% from current levels. 

In his research note, Bergin said a “combination of attractive growth and diversification via USDC circulation” will drive the company’s share price higher over the next 12 months. 

Other reasons cited for the positive stance include Arc optionality and the fact that Circle’s high-margin, fee-based revenues are growing rather quickly. 

All in all, the TD Cowen analyst views CRCL as attractive to play the “institutionalization of stable coins and the modernization of global financial infrastructure,” especially after it secured the New York Trust Charter. 

Why Morgan Stanley Recommends Selling CRCL Shares

On the flip side, Morgan Stanley downgraded Circle shares to “Underweight” and lowered its price target to $38, indicating potential for another 35% decline from current levels. 

In its research note, the firm expressed concerns regarding USDC’s circulating supply growth and intensifying competition in the stablecoin sector. 

“Growing use cases have not yet demonstrated the ability to create the durable balances or recurring transaction economics needed to offset the pressure on Circle’s reserve-income model,” the note explained.

Additionally, analysts pointed to potential yield compression on CRCL’s reserve assets as interest rates decline, which could squeeze its net interest income — a core driver of the company’s bottom line. 

According to the analysts, caution is warranted in playing the crypto stock as its current valuation doesn’t reflect these margin headwinds and near-term challenges.  

What’s the Consensus Rating on Circle Internet Group?

Investors should note, however, that Morgan Stanley’s is somewhat of a contrarian call on CRCL stock. 

The consensus rating on Circle Internet Group sits at “Moderate Buy,” with the mean price target of about $115 indicating potential upside of a whopping 90% from here.