Can Nvidia Justify Its $4.5 Trillion Valuation? Trade Q3 Earnings Volatility With 2X Leverage

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Nvidia (NVDA) reports Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings on November 19th after the market close, with traders watching to see whether the AI chip titan can sustain its extraordinary momentum. The volatile stock has become a bellwether for the future of artificial intelligence.  

NVDA shares have surged more than 30% over the past year, propelling the company to become the world's most valuable, with a market capitalization of about $4.5 trillion.  

This remarkable performance highlights Nvidia's dominance in AI infrastructure, but also raises questions about valuation sustainability as competition intensifies and recent volatility is driven by well-known short sellers.  

For active traders looking to capitalize on Nvidia's notoriously volatile earnings moves, GraniteShares' 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL) and 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF (NVD) provide tactical tools to trade the stock's potential heightened swings without traditional margin requirements. 

Q3 Earnings Expectations and Volatility 

Wall Street expects Nvidia to report earnings of $1.17 per share in Q3, representing 50% growth from the $0.78 reported in the same quarter last year. This continues the company's pattern of exceptional growth driven by insatiable demand for AI accelerators.  

The company's recent earnings history shows consistent outperformance, with Nvidia beating  expectations in multiple consecutive quarters as data center revenue continues its daily price  movements trajectory. The Q2 report delivered $1.05 per share, exceeding expectations of $0.95.  However, the stock's muted reaction—despite the beat—demonstrates how elevated market  expectations have become.

Options markets are pricing in significant movement, with implied volatility elevated at about 51% (as of 11/14/2025) ahead of the report. Historical patterns show that Nvidia routinely experiences substantial post-earnings swings as traders digest not just the numbers, but also guidance and  commentary on AI infrastructure buildout.  

Recent Stock Action and Market Dynamics 

NVDA trades around $185 (as of 11/14/2025), below its recent high of $212 reached in late October. The stock's correlation with broader AI sentiment and technology trends has intensified, making it a proxy for the entire artificial intelligence investment thesis.  

Recent volatility has been notable, with the stock experiencing multiple 5%+ single-day moves as  the market weighs growth prospects against stretched valuations. Microsoft's approval to ship AI chips to the UAE and continued data center expansion announcements have provided positive  catalysts, while concerns about Chinese competition and export restrictions create periodic  headwinds.  

Analyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly bullish with a "Strong Buy" consensus from 47 analysts. The average price target of $234 suggests a 25%+ upside, while Cantor Fitzgerald's recent $300 target reflects expectations that Nvidia's AI infrastructure dominance will continue to drive  exceptional results.  

Key Factors for Q3 Results 

Several elements will drive the stock's reaction when Nvidia reports on November 19th: 

• Data Center Revenue Growth: The critical segment representing 88% of revenue and the primary AI growth driver.  

• Blackwell Chip Ramp: Production and delivery timelines for the next-generation architecture that customers are eagerly awaiting.  

• Gross Margin Trends: Whether the company can maintain its exceptional 72%+ margins amid product transitions and competitive pressures.  

• Q4 Guidance: Forward projections that will determine if the growth trajectory remains intact or begins moderating.  

• AI Infrastructure Demand: Commentary on multi-trillion dollar buildout plans from hyperscalers and enterprise customers. 

• China Export Impact: How new restrictions affect revenue and whether non-China opportunities offset any lost business.  

Trading NVDA Earnings With GraniteShares ETFs 

NVDA typically experiences substantial volatility following its earnings reports, presenting significant opportunities for well-positioned traders. GraniteShares' 2x Leveraged ETFs let traders amplify or hedge NVDA price action during this critical event. 

Bullish Trade: NVDL 

GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL) allows traders to double their potential upside in Nvidia gains. GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL) allows traders to double their exposure to potential Nvidia gains. NVDL seeks 200% of NVDA's daily performance through financial instruments.  

• Targets 200% of NVDA's daily performance
  • When Nvidia rises 1%, NVDL aims for a 2% gain (before fees)
  • When Nvidia falls 1%, NVDL typically drops 2% (before fees)
• Perfect for traders expecting continued AI infrastructure momentum or positive earnings surprises
• Seeks to captures Nvidia's growth potential with additional leverage
• Expense ratio: 1.05% (after fee waiver)
• Average daily volume: 12.9 million shares
• Designed for active traders comfortable with amplified volatility  

GraniteShares Advisors LLC has contractually agreed to waive its fees and / or pay for the  operating expenses of the Fund to ensure that the total fund operating expenses will not exceed 1.15% (NVDL) and 1.50% (NVD) until December 31, 2025. 

Bearish Trade: NVD 

GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF (NVD) offers potential inverse performance to Nvidia without requiring short selling. This feature may helps traders in retirement accounts where IRA and 401(k) rules prohibit traditional shorting. 

• Delivers inverse (-2x) daily performance versus NVDA

  • When Nvidia drops 1%, NVD aims for a 2% gain (before fees)

  • When Nvidia rises 1%, NVD typically falls 2% (before fees)

• Valuable for traders concerned about valuation stretch or disappointing guidance
• Allows retirement account holders to express bearish views on NVDA
• Expense ratio: 1.35%
• Average daily volume: 24.7 million shares
• Could serve as a potential hedge given NVDA’s elevated volatility. Functions as portfolio insurance given NVDA's extreme volatility  

Both NVDL and NVD reset their exposure daily and work best as short-term trading tools rather than buy-and-hold investments. These products require active oversight and are designed for traders who understand leverage effects and daily rebalancing dynamics. However, investment in these  funds involves significant risks. 

With Nvidia essentially defining the AI investment narrative, these 2x leveraged ETFs seek to provide traders powerful tools to capitalize on whatever direction the stock takes on November 19th, whether the company delivers another "beat and raise" quarter or finally disappoints elevated  expectations. 

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