Cattle Markets Stabilize

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January Feeder Cattle opened higher and rallied to the high at 322.575. It reversed course and broke down to the low at 313.80. It rebounded off the low and settled at 319.575. The early rally tested resistance at 321.00 and the breakdown re-tested support at the rising 200-DMA now at 314.75 and the key level at 314.20. Feeder Cattle took a breather of Friday after the breakdown to a new low on Thursday at 311.40. The market bounced back to close in the upper end of Thursday’s breakdown candle. There is still uncertainty as far as the futures market is concerned as to when the border will open with Mexico and the US will start taking in cattle. The fear is the border will open sooner rather than later bringing in a wave of cattle as there is over 250,000 cattle waiting to cross the border. This will overwhelm supply and bring down cattle prices. Secretary Rollins continues to say she is not ready to open the border but that the President is focusing on this issue. The fear is he will demand she reopen the border even if she isn’t ready to do so. If the border reopens prematurely and we get the screwworm in Texas as a result, it will endanger the Texas cattle industry in my opinion. What was the purpose of closing the border in the first place? We aren’t producing enough flies to contain the parasite and send it back to Panama. Production facilities won’t be ready to open in Mexico until July 2026 to produce 30 million to 100 million sterile flies which is said to not be enough o contain the fly anyway. We shut down the border last November when it was winter. People expect it to open when it gets colder. What is the difference between this winter and last? The cash market is ignoring the futures for the most part as the index is down but not out like the futures market has been. November futures are really cheap to the index. If the index stays stabile, could we see a rebound in the futures? We’ll see!... A breakdown from settlement could see price re-test support at the rising 200-DMA. Support then comes in at 314.20 and then 311.90. If price stabilizes, we could eat into Wednesday’s breakdown candle. Resistance is at 326.875.

The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 345.96 as of 11/06/2025. 

December Live Cattle opened higher and rallied to the high at 222.95. Price reversed and traded down the to the low at 219.075. It turned higher and rallied into the close to settle in the middle of the range at 221.35. The rally stalled just below resistance at 223.275 and the low stopped just above support at 218.625. Cash traded a little lower than last week and the average price looks to be lower than last week’s 230.86. It will likely be a new low for the recent breakdown in cash prices which, in my opinion is a bad omen for cattle prices. The government just announced it is initiating an investigation into the packing industry and the high prices they have charged for beef. This could lead to pressure on the cutout which could lead to further declines in the cash market. The government’s involvement in the industry is not a good sign and their interference could delay the rebuilding of the cattle herd as producers would become even more wary of the future and elect to keep things the same. The fundamentals indicate tight cattle supplies but with the government acting as a nanny, it creates confusion and fear leading to more volatility… not less as traders, packers, producers and the retail industry react to tweets and noise from the government that solves nothing as the fundamentals haven’t changed but the psychology has, in my opinion. We’ll see!... A failure from settlement could see price re-test support at the 218.625. Support then comes in at 217.75. If price can hold settlement, it could retest resistance at 223.275. Resistance then comes in at 224.55.

Boxed beef cutouts were mixed as choice cutouts decreased 1.57 to 376.40 and select increased 0.33 to 361.09. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 15.31 and the load count was 137.

Friday’s estimated slaughter is 96,000, which is below last week’s 98,000 and last year’s 116,164. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 3,000, which is below last week’s 4,000 and last year’s 8,801. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 555,000, which is below last week’s 559,000 and last year’s 620,666.

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been mostly inactive on moderate demand in all feeding regions. The last established market in the Texas Panhandle was Wednesday at 232.00. The last established market in Kansas was Wednesday at 232.00. The last established market in Nebraska was Wednesday with live purchases from 230.00-230.50 and dressed purchases from 357.00- 360.00. The last established market in the Western Cornbelt was Wednesday with live purchases ranging from 225.00-230.00, mostly 228.00, and dressed purchases from 355.00-360.00.

The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 225.00 – 235.50 and from 355.00 – 365.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.

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Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

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