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January Feeder Cattle is now the lead contract as its volume exceeded the volume of the November contract. It gap opened lower and made the high at 356.425. This left a gap from the 10/23/2025 low at 356.875 to the Friday high. Feeders abruptly turned lower and collapsed. It crashed to the low of the day and a limit down move at 348.175. All in the first 5-minutes of trade. The second 5-minutes saw an uptick in price then it essentially remained limit down for the rest of the session and it settled limit down. While analysts were saying they didn’t think the government’s beef plan would have no material effect on near term beef prices fears grew louder and louder that the Mexican Ag Minister would be coming to the US to convince the US to re-open the border with Mexico to allow cattle to come into the US. This put the sledgehammer to the market and sentiment was get me out. If longs weren’t out in the opening 10-minutes well they are still long. This allowed some shorts that have been under water to get out at a profit after 6-day crash in price, with Friday the clincher as it essentially erased gains since the beginning of October. The Ag minister story may have been the headline story on Friday but the technical action this week was also a major part of the breakdown on Friday as we busted through major support at the 50-DMA on the continuous chart on Thursday and the gap lower open and failure to capture any gains to close the gap was also a big part in my opinion. Managed money said get me the “….” out and price fell hard as a result. Volume was strong, especially after going limit down in the first five minutes. Limits will be expanded on Monday. We’ll see!... A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 344.675. Support then comes in at the 100-DMA now at 341.075. If price stabilizes, we could consolidate within the Friday range.
The Feeder Cattle Index fell and is at 367.08 as of 10/23/2025.
December Live Cattle opened lower and made the high at 241.175. It broke down from here as the Feeder Cattle went limit down, finally joining Feeders down limit by around 10:15. It tried to bounce off limit a few times but was locked limit by 12:15 and stayed there, settling down limit at 233.925. The market fell but cash was mostly steady as the packer needed to buy cattle in my opinion as cutouts have rallied and the load counts over the past few weeks have been large and they need to fill orders. Now, with futures breaking they were able to avoid paying higher prices but they couldn’t crash the market as producers were smart enough to know they need cattle as supplies are still tight. The futures market on the other hand, with the President making comments about cattle prices being too high and he is responsible for cattlemen making money with his tariffs took that as a sign to get out of the market. And boy did they… crashing price to finally go down limit which has been somewhat common for the Feeder market but has been lacking in the fat market. As I said with the Feeders the plan the government has put out will likely have no material effect on price near term but the announcement of the Mexican Minister coming to town seemed to finally be the straw that broke the futures markets back. With the President putting the pressure on cattlemen is he going to put the same type of pressure on the packer. That is where the consumer is feeling the effects of higher beef prices after all… The noise he is making over cattle prices shows, in my opinion that he is not knowledgeable about the cattle market and the artificially lower prices cattlemen have had to deal with over the past 10 years. The packer has been able to turn every event into a profit-making venture for them and a money losing event for cattlemen and even the retail side with consumers losing. Now that supply has dwindled to the lowest levels in years and producers finally have the ability to make money, he has become a nanny. He has taken the free market and put it out to pasture. Yes, the market has improved under his leadership as the economy is on the right track and we likely would be suffering under a different president but, it is not his job to say you are making too much money. From articles on the state of the beef market, the consumer has made a conscious choice to make beef the king of the market. Consumers can always go to lower priced pork or chicken. Thet continue to choose beef. With tight supplies, the price has risen. Yet, the consumer continues to favor beef. Making public statements about cattle price being too high misses the mark, in my opinion. Tell the packer he is charging the retail industry too much for them to buy beef. Attack the packing industry. See where that gets you. We’ll see!... A failure from settlement could see price test support at 232.75. Support then comes in at230.425. Support follows at the rising 100-DMA now at 228.375. If price can hold settlement, it could consolidate within the Friday range.
Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts jumped 2.62 to 375.76 and select surged 3.23 to 357.97. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 17.79 and the load count was 133.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 110,000, which is above last week’s 92,000 and below last year’s 112,883. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 17,000, which is above last week’s 9,000 and below last year’s 18,987. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 573,000, which is above last week’s 567,000 and below last year’s 625,186.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been light on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle. Compared to Thursday, live purchases have been steady at 238.00. Negotiated cash trade has been moderate on good demand in all other feeding regions. Compared to Wednesday in Kansas, live purchases have been 2.00 lower at 238.00. Compared to last week in Nebraska, live purchases have been 1.00-5.00 lower from 235.00-239.00. Compared to Thursday in Nebraska, dressed purchases have been unevenly steady from 365.00-370.00, mostly 370.00. Compared to Thursday in the Western Cornbelt, live purchases have been unevenly steady, ranging from 235.00- 239.00. There have been a few dressed purchases ranging from 365.00-372.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established dressed market in the Western Cornbelt was last week from 372.00-372.50.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 232.00 – 240.00 and from 365.00 – 373.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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