Shootin' the Bull about government interference

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

​10/21/2025

Live Cattle:

​You would think there would be enough to write about to dry an ink well, but that is not the case.   The fundamentals and technical assessment of the market is being skewed with influence from the President, for which this situation has caught the attention of.  Numbers have been crunched quickly to dispel thoughts of flooding the US beef market with Argentinian beef.  However, it could be just enough to take the edge off having to bid relentlessly to acquire inventory.  For the moment though, we know the beef/cattle market has the attention of the President, for which he is attempting to encourage an increase of supplies, therefore, leading me to recommend not going from one close to the next without some form of downside price risk protection.      

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Feeder Cattle:

Basis converged considerably today with over $3.00 lower of the index and over a dollar higher futures.  While price direction remains questionable, the narrowing basis spread is exceptionally beneficial to backgrounders in the spring months.  There is no tiger trap currently laid, therefore, anticipate one. Although current actions of the administration appear as a token to the markets, it is the first crack in the damn of what could turn into a leak.  

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​Corn:

All were softer as everything about grain price movement hinges, again, on the President's ability to negotiate a trade deal.  Now we have both livestock production and row crop production soundly in the hands of the President.  ​

Energy:​

​Energy was mixed again today.  Gasoline was the weak link, but not by much. A story about refilling the strategic oil supplies lifted crude from the lows, but did nothing to change the fledgling down trend.   

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Bonds:

​Bonds were higher today with a new high from contract low.  The direction of both of these markets suggests a greater need for stimulation than cooling off.  Therefore, I anticipate more recessionary factors to develop than further inflationary.  Core inflation is not expected to move lower, potentially making for more stagflation than inflation.  Commodity inflation has been somewhat calm when considering agricultural items.  Barring beef and coffee, most other edible commodities are cheap.  

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 “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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