Dear SpaceX Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for August 4

For a newly public company, the first earnings report is where the real conversation begins. For Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX), that moment arrives next week. The aerospace and satellite communications company is set to report its second-quarter financial and operational results on Tuesday, Aug. 4, after the market closes, marking its first earnings release since going public. Normally, that would be reason enough for investors to tune in. But this time, there’s another layer to the story.

The earnings report also kicks off the first phase of SpaceX’s insider share unlock, meaning some early investors and employees will soon be able to sell part of their holdings. That’s a big moment for any newly listed company, especially one whose stock has slipped well below its post-IPO highs and has attracted a growing number of bearish bets. Investors now want to know whether the recent weakness says more about the business or simply about market sentiment.

Management has a chance to change that conversation. Clear updates on future growth, Starship spending, and the company’s AI business could give shareholders a reason to stay patient. With fresh shares about to enter the market, this earnings report may do far more than recap the last three months.

Let’s take a closer look at what investors should expect from SpaceX’s first quarterly results as a public company.

About SpaceX Stock

If you have followed the markets lately, chances are you have heard plenty about SpaceX. But for anyone just getting acquainted, SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk in 2002 and now based in Starbase, Texas, has evolved into much more than a rocket company. It builds reusable launch vehicles and spacecraft, operates the fast-growing Starlink satellite internet network, and has expanded into artificial intelligence following its acquisition of xAI.

Today, the company spans space transportation, global connectivity, and AI infrastructure under one roof. That mix of businesses has transformed SpaceX from an ambitious space venture into one of the world's most closely watched technology companies, with several long-term growth opportunities extending well beyond its launches.

SpaceX’s journey in the public market has been anything but smooth. After an explosive debut that briefly sent shares soaring to an intraday high of $225.64 on June 16, the excitement has cooled considerably. The stock has lost nearly half its value from that peak and is down 31.45% over the past month alone, including a 2.35% decline in the last five trading sessions, touching an intraday low of $107.01 on July 28. Even so, SpaceX remains one of the world’s most valuable companies, with a market capitalization of $1.52 trillion.

The recent slide reflects a mix of factors rather than a single headline. As the initial IPO excitement faded, many early investors chose to lock in profits, while others grew increasingly cautious ahead of the company’s first insider share unlock. The announcement of the Aug. 4 earnings date officially set that process in motion, allowing eligible insiders to begin selling up to 20% of their restricted holdings – around 911.5 million shares – starting Aug. 6. Another 10% could be unlocked if the stock meets certain post-IPO price conditions.

Meanwhile, investors have become more selective. Questions about SpaceX’s premium valuation, heavy capital spending requirements, and recent Starship launch setbacks have added to the uncertainty. Short sellers have also become more aggressive, with bearish bets climbing to nearly one-third of the company’s public float. That leaves SpaceX heading into its first earnings report with plenty to prove.

A Snapshot of SpaceX’s Q1 Numbers and Outlook

SpaceX delivered a solid start to fiscal 2026, although the numbers also highlighted the company's aggression in investing for the future. In Q1, revenue climbed 15.4% year-over-year (YOY) to $4.7 billion, driven mainly by continued growth in its Starlink subscriber base and rising demand for AI products linked to X and Grok. However, its Space business had a quieter quarter, as the timing of launches and the pace of some government contracts limited growth.

SpaceX reported an operating loss of $1.94 billion and a net loss of $4.3 billion as it continued spending heavily on long-term projects. While those figures may seem concerning at first glance, they don’t reveal the whole story. The company generated adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion, indicating that its core business continues to produce healthy operating cash flow despite the elevated investment levels.

Those investments were heavily concentrated in AI. During the quarter, SpaceX spent $7.7 billion on AI initiatives, far more than the $1.33 billion invested in its Connectivity business and the $1.05 billion directed toward its Space segment. The spending pattern makes it clear that management views AI as one of its biggest long-term growth opportunities. Supporting that strategy is a sizable balance sheet, with $15.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents at quarter-end, alongside $29.1 billion in long-term debt, giving the company both the resources and the financial commitments needed to pursue its ambitious expansion plans.

While SpaceX has not provided official financial guidance for the second quarter, Wall Street has fairly clear expectations. Analysts project revenue of about $6.82 billion, along with a net loss of roughly $0.26 per share for the quarter. For the full fiscal year 2026, they expect a loss of $0.64 per share. Looking ahead, though, analysts believe the company could turn the corner in fiscal 2027, posting an EPS of $0.63. That would represent a 198.4% YOY improvement. 

What’s Wall Street’s Take on SpaceX Now?

Wall Street is not questioning whether SpaceX is a remarkable company. The bigger debate is how much of that success is already reflected in the stock price. That discussion picked up last week when HSBC initiated coverage of SpaceX with a “Hold” rating and a $115 price target, below the company’s $135 IPO price.

In the bank’s view, the market has already priced in much of SpaceX’s long-term opportunity, including continued Starlink expansion, higher launch activity, and the company’s growing AI ambitions. HSBC did outline a much more optimistic scenario, however. If Starship becomes commercially viable beginning in 2027 and launch capacity roughly doubles, the bank believes the stock could eventually reach $293 per share. For now, though, it views that as a best-case outcome rather than its base expectation.

HSBC also pointed to several challenges that could keep investors cautious. While it expects revenue to more than double to $38.2 billion in 2026 from $18.7 billion in 2025, driven largely by Starlink and AI, the bank believes heavy investment will keep SpaceX unprofitable on a GAAP basis through 2027. It also expects FCF to remain negative until 2030 after an estimated $106 billion of cumulative cash burn.

Beyond the financials, HSBC raised questions about the company’s AI strategy. It believes xAI still trails the industry’s largest players in enterprise adoption and computing capacity, while the economics of orbital data centers remain uncertain. The bank also argued that Starlink’s long-term addressable market may be smaller than the company’s projections. Plus, it flagged governance concerns and financial reporting risks, noting Elon Musk’s voting control and warning that future lock-up expirations could meaningfully increase the public float.

Morgan Stanley is also urging investors to stay cautious, though for a different reason. Analyst Adam Jonas believes another wave of insider shares becoming eligible for sale shortly after the upcoming earnings report could push the stock toward $100. Its analysts noted that many investors currently assign little – or even negative – value to SpaceX’s AI business, arguing that its enormous capital requirements and uncertain economics overshadow the potential upside, at least for now.

Overall, SPCX stock carries a “Moderate Buy” rating. Of the 33 analysts covering the stock, 22 recommend a “Strong Buy,” two have a “Moderate Buy,” eight are playing it safe with a “Hold,” and the remaining one is advising a “Moderate Sell.”

At current levels, the average price target of $228.06 suggests that SPCX stock has upside potential of 102.6%. Meanwhile, the Street’s highest price target of $800.00 implies SPCX could rally as much as 610.8%.

Final Thoughts on SpaceX

SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company comes at an important crossroads. After surging in the weeks following its IPO, the stock has pared much of those gains as investors shifted from excitement to execution. Investors already know the business has enormous potential. What they want now is a clearer picture of where it goes from here.

That leaves management with more than just quarterly numbers to deliver. On Aug. 4, investors will be looking for whether it’s a first-ever forward outlook, greater visibility into when Starship spending begins to ease, or a better explanation of how the company’s AI business will translate into future profits.

Those answers could help put the recent weakness behind the stock and restore confidence in its long-term trajectory. Yet, if they don’t come, the arrival of millions of newly unlocked shares could make the path forward even bumpier.