Will Apple's stock sink on aluminum iPhones?

On September 9, Apple unveiled its updated product line, including new iPhones, AirPods with AI features, and the latest Apple Watch. However, what many investors had been waiting and hoping for — a long-promised Siri AI overhaul — was not even mentioned. No wonder the company's stock, as usual, fell after the presentation.

What seems to have triggered most of the online community wasn’t the lack of cutting-edge tech but Apple’s decision to return to a unibody aluminum design in the new iPhone 17 Pro series. Instead of praising improved cooling features, users focused on the material’s tendency to scratch easily.

Could it trigger a drop in demand — and consequently in stocks?

Unlikely, as the issue has a simple solution: get a phone case. Early data suggests that demand for the new iPhones is strong. On Friday, when sales launched, they were tracking 10% to 15% ahead of the iPhone 16. This appears to be driven more by the plain old upgrade cycle than by any standout new features.

In fact, Wedbush estimates that over 315 million users worldwide haven’t upgraded their iPhones in the past four years. Of course, not all of them will upgrade with the iPhone 17, but Wall Street analysts tracked by FactSet still expect 232 million iPhones to be sold in the fiscal year ending September 2026.

What are the factors to watch in Apple stock?

The first is geopolitics — especially developments in the U.S.-China trade relationship. For context, revenue from China fell 2.3% to $16 billion in Apple’s fiscal second quarter ending March 29, coming in below analyst expectations of $16.83 billion. The good news is that things now appear to be improving.

Pre-orders for Apple’s new iPhone 17 series have gotten off to a strong start in China, breaking previous records despite delays in the shipment of the iPhone Air. The only caveat is that if U.S.-China relations take another hit, it could negatively affect Apple stock — and potentially drag down the S&P 500 as well.

Macroeconomic conditions also play a key role.

The Fed recently raised its U.S. GDP growth forecasts to 1.8% for next year and 1.9% for 2027, up from previous estimates. Still, the threat of stagflation — a mix of slowing growth and rising prices — remains a risk. If it materializes, it could drive up costs, squeeze consumer spending, and ultimately weigh on Apple’s revenues.

That said, most professionals remain optimistic. According to LSEG data, 32 out of 50 analysts covering Apple currently rate the stock as a “strong buy” or “buy.” While that’s no guarantee of future gains, it reflects a strong confidence level. And if U.S.-China tensions ease, investor sentiment could improve even further.