Four weeks of higher highs and higher lows in soybean meal

I am Stephen Davis, senior market strategist at Walsh Trading, Inc., Chicago, Illinois. You can reach me at 312-878-2391.

Yesterday's strong chart action and gap higher in soybeans is shifting the outlook to favor further price increases. Technicals look good in soybeans and soybean meal. China’s commitment to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, coupled with favorable pricing compared to South American sources, contributes to the positive outlook. 

In an interview with Brownfield, an agriculture-focused news outlet, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said he is confident that China will meet those numbers. “They have the entire marketing period to meet the 25 million metric ton commitment for this year,” Vaden said. 

The current marketing period runs from September 2025 to September 2026. According to a White House Fact Sheet, China agreed to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028. 

Below is the weekly chart for September 2026 soybean meal. Notice the four weeks of higher highs and higher lows. In my opinion, this indicates a trend higher.

Trade strategy is to buy September 2026 soybean meal at 319.0, good til cancelled (GTC). Sell at 314.0 stop, GTC (that's a $500 risk). Profit objective is to sell September 2026 soybean meal at 329.0, GTC ($1,000 profit per contract).

An option trade strategy is to buy September 2026 soybean meal 330 call at 6.05 ($605 per contract). Expiration on this option is August 21, 2026. In my opinion, this is plenty of time for September 2026 soybean meal to get above the 330 strike price.

To discuss trading strategies, contact me anytime. Have an excellent day. 

Stephen Davis
Senior Market Strategist 
Walsh Trading

Direct 312 878 2391 
Toll Free 800 556 9411
sdavis@walshtrading.com  
www.walshtrading.com

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