USDA report says U.S. soybean production expected to reach record high

I am Stephen Davis, senior market strategist at Walsh Trading, Inc., Chicago, Illinois. You can reach me at 312-878-2391.

In its monthly Situation and Outlook Report released today, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service states that “U.S. soybean production is expected to rise to a record high, on more acreage .” Planted acreage has reached 85.4 million acres according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Acreage report released on June 30. Today's report goes on to say, “Assuming a weather-adjusted trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, total soybean production is projected up to a record high of 4.5 billion bushels.” It continues to say that total soybean supplies for marketing year (MY) 2026/27 are forecast to increase by 30 million bushels, as the production increase is partially offset by lower beginning stocks, due to revised MY 2025/26 soybean exports.

In my opinion, it is a good time to buy August 2026 soybean meal. Today's price is 315.0, right at the 200-day moving average. Today's low was 314.2. So a trade strategy is to buy August 2026 soybean meal at 315.0. Risk the trade 310.0 stop, good til cancelled (GTC). That's a $500 per contract risk. Profit objective is 325.0, GTC. 

An option trade strategy is to buy September 2026 soybean meal at 325 call at 465  ($465.00 per contract). This option expires August 21, 2026, which is plenty of time for it to get into the money, in my opinion. 
 

In the chart above, the 200-day moving average is represented by the black horizontal line.

To discuss trading strategies, contact me anytime. Have an excellent day. 

Stephen Davis
Senior Market Strategist 
Walsh Trading

Direct 312 878 2391 
Toll Free 800 556 9411
sdavis@walshtrading.com  
www.walshtrading.com

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