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For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays. My next webinar will be Tuesday, July 14, 2026, at 3:15 pm. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
Cattle futures fell to a new low for the recent down move before retracing in front of the weekend. The persistent weakness in the futures market put pressure on cash prices this week as the packer was able to get control of the market and crash prices down to 245.00. The amazing part of the trade is somehow there was a 250.00 trade on the mandatory report for Thursday on Friday mornings final report. This will likely knock down the cash average by 7 bucks off of last weeks price. There is a huge price differential between futures and cash and that situation plus high heat and expectations the packer has a good supply of cattle under their control through July contracts and packer ability to use this information to go after the weakest hands first as hedgers took advantage of the extremely wide basis to lock in those profits to compensate for the low packer bids. Futures traders seem to be wary of long positions as the government pressures retailers to lower beef prices in grocery stores. In my opinion, the government is pushing the rebuilding of the herd further down the road as its interference in the free markets may lead to producer angst that cattle prices could collapse with a herd rebuild. Why do I want to take the risk if the government is working against me? No matter how good the intentions are for the government to want to lower prices, its attempts to be involved in a business they know nothing about can lead to unintended consequences as most interventions usually do. So, in my opinion, traders are reluctant to build a new long position and have been likely liquidating long positions because they fear there will be market moving comments on any strong rally. With futures trading at such discounted levels to the cash market any hedge put on for protection is already likely at a loss so a hedge would not be to protect a potential profit but to lock in a potential loss. Not a pretty picture. It is not only the futures that have put producers in a bind. The weakness in the cutout when expectations were for the cutout to be strong has given the producer headaches. This has caused producers to think the packer has come up with new ways to sell beef that doesn’t make it to the cutout. With the dog days of summer just ahead, the packer can use this negative psychology to keep a lid on cash prices. We’ll see… August Feeder Cattle opened higher and traded to the high of the day at 358.40. The rally stalled just below resistance at 358.875. Price then broke down, taking out support at the flattening 200-DMA now at 354.45 and the key level at 354.55 to the low at 351.45. The break down found support here, and rallied to the middle of the range and settled at 354.60. This is just above the 200-DMA. If settlement holds, it could revisit resistance at 358.875. Resistance then comes in at the flattening 100-DMA now at 360.725. A failure from settlement could see price revisit the Friday low. Support then comes in at 350.20. August Live Cattle opened higher and traded to the high at 236.025. The rally stalled just above the key level at 235.625. The price action took price down to the low at 232.925. The breakdown stalled just above support at 232.275. The breakdown took out the Bullish Engulfing Candle established on June 4th. This cancels the bullish formation but the Friday price action could create another potentially bullish formation with a strong rally on Monday. The breakdown and ensuing rally formed a Hamer candlestick and a positive day on Monday could lead to a strong recovery in price. If price can take out the Friday high, it could test resistance at the 200-DMA now at 237.15. Resistance then comes in at 238.125. A failure from settlement could see price revisit the low. A failure from the low could see price test support at 230.425.
The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 370.42 as of 07/09/2026 settlement.
Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts decreased 0.59 to 386.48 and select decreased 1.56 to 365.87. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 20.61 and the load count was 102.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 99,000, which is above last week’s 25,000 and below last year’s 102,855. Saturday slaughter is expected to be Zero which is even with last week and below last year’s 3,230. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 529,000, which is above last week’s 458,000 and below last year’s 571,565.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been light on moderate demand in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt. Compared to Thursday in Nebraska, live purchases have been steady at 248.00. There have been a few dressed purchases at 390.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last dressed market test in Nebraska was Thursday at mostly 393.00. Compared to Thursday in the Western Cornbelt, live purchases have been steady at 248.00. The last established dressed market in the Western Cornbelt was Thursday at mostly 393.00. Negotiated cash trade has been mostly inactive on light demand in Kansas. The last established market test in Kansas was Thursday at 248.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 245.00 – 250.00 and from 385.00 – 395.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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