Keep an Eye on September 2026 Wheat as Harvest Progresses

I am Stephen Davis, senior market strategist at Walsh Trading, Inc., Chicago, Illinois. You can reach me at 312-878-2391.

The wheat market today showed a bit less strength compared to corn and soybeans, but it’s still looking bullish, in my opinion. Weather conditions are less of a concern for wheat production going forward. According to United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Weekly Crop Bulletin dated July 7, 59 percent of the nation’s winter wheat acreage had been harvested by July 5, eight percentage points ahead of both last year and the five-year average.

Looking at the chart below, buyers are pushing the price of September 2026 Wheat close to the 100-day moving average. Ending stocks are expected to be lower in the USDA's July 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Given the substantial short positions held by managed money, short covering in the wheat market is anticipated to persist in the near future. In my opinion, the market may test the June highs of 626½ on September 2026 Chicago Wheat. 

Trade strategy is to buy September 2026 Wheat at 609.0. Risk the trade to 599.0 stop ($500 risk per contract). Profit objective is 629.0 ($1,000 profit per contract). An option trade strategy is to buy September 2026 Wheat 650/call at 14.4 ($725 per contract). In my opinion, If the market gets above 626½, it is likely to continue on to 650 and you will have options that are in the money.

The 100-day moving average is represented by the black line in the chart above.

To discuss trading strategies, contact me anytime. Have an excellent day. 

Stephen Davis
Senior Market Strategist 
Walsh Trading

Direct 312 878 2391 
Toll Free 800 556 9411
sdavis@walshtrading.com  
www.walshtrading.com

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