Cattle Markets Make New Low For Down Move

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Cattle futures started the week on a sour note, opening lower and breaking down to new lows for the recent down move. This is leftover weakness that assisted the packer in taking cash prices down 4 bucks(cash average)  from the prior week’s cash sales and on the Feeder side, keeps futures at a steep discount to the feeder index that has come down from a new all-time high index price. The spring/ summer holidays are over with and now we have the summer heat to deal with. This could be good or bad, depending on weather it is comfortable enough for consumers to grill. We still have foreign visitors here due to the World Cup, which from news reports have gone extremely well with strong consumption of our various cuisine as they explored our cites. But for some reason, and producers have their conspiracies of how the packers are moving their meat, the cutout has not soared and the load counts continue to be lower than expected. From what I have seen, beef demand remains strong and the USDA updated exports to show a big increase (record sales) on the last report. They are now saying that the sales are a revision of reporting errors as the countries that reported seemed to indicate there was a misunderstanding of reporting requirement. The report showed record sales of 126,062 metric tons in the week ended June 25^th in which 111,164 were sales that were reported late. This frustrates analysts and calls into question the accuracy of the USDA with their reporting duties. Cattle supplies are still tight but the cutout continues to fail to achieve what analysts assumed would occur, that is a breakout above 400.00 that would take the cutout to a new record. Grilling season is now about a third of the way complete, with just one major grilling holiday left. Gas prices are grinding lower. Can the producer maintain their hold on cattle prices or will the packer be able to take prices down a couple more notches? We’ll See!... August Feeder Cattle opened lower and broke down to the low at 356.625. Price reversed course and had a strong recovery that took price to the high at 363.125. Price pulled back and drifted in the middle of the range and settle at 360.50. The open was below the critical medium to long-term moving averages. The breakdown took price below the key level at 358.875. The rally took price to just above the key level at 363.00. Settlement formed a small bodied candle, indicating indecision. Settlement was below the 21, 50, and 100-DMAs, now at 362.80 ,361.65 and 361.025 respectively. If price fails to hold settlement, it could retest support at 358.875 and then the Monday low. Support then comes in at 354.55. If settlement holds, we could revisit the Monday high. Resistance then comes in at 365.675.  August Live Cattle opened higher and broke down to the low at 238.30. The low was just above the key level at 238.125. Price recovered and rallied to the high at 240.55. The rally stalled and drifted into the close to settle at 239.10. The price action formed a Doji candlestick indicating indecision. This comes at the new low for the recent down move. This is in my opinion a critical area for the futures. If price can’t hold settlement, it can re-test support at 238.125. Support then comes in at the 200-DMA now at 237.125. If settlement holds, price could test the Monday high. Resistance then comes in at 242.05. The 100-DMA is next at 242.55.

The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 371.11 as of 07/03/2026 settlement. 

Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts decreased 0.59 to 386.48 and select decreased 1.56 to 365.87. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 20.61 and the load count was 102.

Monday’s estimated slaughter is 103,000, which is below last week’s 104,000 and last year’s 113,141.

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Monday, negotiated cash trade has been inactive on light demand in Kansas, Nebraska, and the Western Cornbelt. The last established market test in Kansas was last week with live purchases at 255.00. The last established market test in Nebraska was last week with live purchases from mostly 255.00-256.00 and dressed purchases at mostly 403.00. The last established market test in the Western Cornbelt was last week with live purchases at mostly 255.00 and dressed purchases at mostly 403.00.

The USDA is indicating no cash trades for live cattle and on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.

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Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

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