Shares of U.S. companies have faced increased pressure following the latest escalation in Washington’s trade war. The newly imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico are expected to impact earnings across several industries, including automakers, retailers and raw materials. President Donald Trump has enacted 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, affecting over $900 billion worth of annual U.S. imports.
Additionally, tariffs on Chinese imports have been doubled to 20% in response to Beijing’s role in the U.S. fentanyl overdose crisis. These new levies come on top of the 25% tariffs implemented during Trump's first term. China has retaliated with tariffs of 10-15% on certain U.S. imports starting March 10.
Automobile Industry Hit Hard
S&P Global estimates that U.S. automakers could face an annual EBITDA reduction of 10-25% due to the tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. The 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum further add to cost pressures, with the automotive industry accounting for 15% of net shipments of iron and steel in 2024.
According to J.P. Morgan analysts, automakers are likely to absorb most of the direct tariff costs, though suppliers, dealers and consumers may also feel the brunt. General Motors is expected to incur losses of approximately $14 billion — nearly all its forecasted global EBIT — while Ford could see a $6 billion loss, amounting to 75% of its projected global EBIT, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.
Ford operates three plants in Mexico, exporting nearly 196,000 cars to North America in the first half of 2024, with 90% destined for the United States. Stellantis manufactures 39% of its North American vehicles in Mexico or Canada. General Motors and Ford produce 36% and 18% of their North American vehicles in these countries, respectively.
No wonder, First Trust S-Network Future Vehicles & Technology ETF CARZ lost more than 1% on March 4, 2025.
Home Builders Face Rising Costs
U.S. homebuilders reliant on raw materials from Canada and Mexico are bracing for increased costs due to the tariffs. The additional tariffs on finished products such as appliances, electronics, cabinets and fixtures from Mexico and China are expected to further increase home construction costs.
S&P Global warned that building materials companies, already experiencing margin pressures due to rising commodity, labor and freight costs, may face further financial strain. iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF ITB could be at risks.
Aerospace Suppliers at Risk
Canada is the largest import source and third-largest export destination for the U.S. aerospace industry. The new tariffs could significantly increase costs for already struggling suppliers and major manufacturers such as Boeing.
Canadian manufacturers supply engines for General Dynamics' Gulfstream and Textron. Canadian firms also provide landing gear for Boeing and Airbus. Mexico’s expanding aerospace hubs in Queretaro and Chihuahua have attracted major suppliers, including Honeywell. iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF ITA lost more than 2% on March 4, 2025.
Airline Stocks Plummet Amid Economic Slowdown Concerns
Fears of an economic slowdown weighed heavily on airline stocks, with the S&P Composite 1500 Passenger Index plunging 6%, marking its worst day in over a year, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. Corporates and consumers may cut back on discretionary spending, including travel, due to rising prices caused by tariffs. Additionally, corporations may seek to reduce business travel expenses to protect their profit margins. U.S. Global Jets ETF JETS lost about 3.4% on March 4, 2025.
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iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB): ETF Research Reports
First Trust S-Network Future Vehicles & Technology ETF (CARZ): ETF Research Reports
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA): ETF Research Reports
U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS): ETF Research Reports
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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