Is Mosaic Stock Underperforming the Dow?

The Mosaic Company (MOS) is a leading global producer and marketer of crop nutrients, specializing in phosphate and potash fertilizers that are essential for improving agricultural yields. Headquartered in Tampa, Florida, the company operates mining, production, and distribution facilities across North America and South America, serving farmers and agricultural customers worldwide. 

Mosaic has a market capitalization of $7 billion, making it a “mid-cap” stock. As one of the world's largest producers of phosphate and potash fertilizers, Mosaic's products help farmers increase crop productivity and support global food demand. The company also develops advanced crop nutrition products and biological solutions aimed at improving nutrient efficiency and promoting sustainable farming practices.

The company’s stock reached a 52-week high of $38.23 in July 2025, and is down 42.5% from that level. Over the past three months, Mosaic’s stock has declined 6.7%, underperforming the broader Dow Jones Industrial Average Index’s ($DOWI) 11.9% return over the same time frame.

Over the past 52 weeks, Mosaic’s stock dropped 39.5%, while it has been down 8.8% on a YTD basis. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 21.4% over the past 52 weeks and 7.6% in 2026, outpacing the stock. 

From a technical standpoint, the stock has been trading under its 50-day moving average since mid-March. The stock has also been trading below its 200-day moving average since early October, indicating a downtrend. 

Mosaic has lagged the broader market over the past year as the fertilizer industry has faced a challenging operating environment. Profitability and margins have come under pressure due to subdued global demand, softer sales volumes, and elevated input costs, which have weighed on earnings. In addition, geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties have created volatility in key agricultural markets, while fluctuating crop prices have led farmers to remain cautious with fertilizer spending, further limiting growth prospects for the company.

However, on May 13, shares of Mosaic jumped more than 4% after RBC Capital Markets upgraded the fertilizer producer to “Outperform” from “Sector Perform” and raised its price target to $27. The brokerage cited improving fundamentals and a more favorable outlook for phosphate and potash markets, reflecting growing confidence in Mosaic’s earnings potential and long-term growth prospects.

Comparing MOS with its top industry peer, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF), which has gained 3.2% over the past 52 weeks and 34% in 2026, shows that MOS underperforms.  

Wall Street analysts are moderately bullish on Mosaic’s stock. The stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” from the 18 analysts covering it. The mean price target of $26.62 implies a 21% upside from current price levels.