Shootin' the Bull about Cow Guy comments and charts

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

6/17/2026

Live Cattle:​

When viewing the weekly continuation chart, and listening to comments this morning from Scott "The Cow Guy" Shellady, leads me to think along the same lines.  This week's highs are being made on a lower oscillator reading than the previous high made the week of August '25, and the 5/15 high of this May.  A close this week, at a new high, will produce a 5 wave sequence from the November '25 low.  Again, combining Scott's comments, and the chart, leads me to continue to work aggressively towards protecting what is available, and continuing to hope for further follow through to the upside. 

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With Thursday's cattle on feed report expected to show 11.72 million head on feed, I wondered how many times the on feed number had been over 12 million.  Since 2000, the number of cattle on feed, in any given month or year, has been 48 months.  In the past 26 years, 312 months, only 15% of that time, 48 months, have there been more than 12 million on feed.  What is the disconnect in cattle prices today and the years past with as many on feed, and at a lot lower weights?  I think it two reasons, the population increase of non born US citizens during the Biden administration, and the enormous amount of wealth, to some, generated from the Trillions of dollars of government spending by all administrations. 

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Futures traders bolstered futures sharply to help converge basis.  Unfortunately, they didn't help but a little in the months with the widest positive spread.  However, they all neared their respective contract high, offering producers at least a close proximity shot at what has been available. Oh, and open interest increased significantly Monday and Tuesday. 

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​​​​Feeder Cattle: ​

The negative basis hung around for another day.  There is no other aspect of cattle production for profitability than a higher price in the future.  Futures traders have leapt into the frying pan with both feet to help you manage the enormous working capital you have placed at risk.  I recommend you do not shun their grace.  Producers, marketing into the summer video sales, should already own the at the money puts on the August contract with expectations of selling them the day the gavel slams to conserve premium left, or profit from.    

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​​​​Corn:

Wheat and beans are moving higher.  Corn is following.  Wheat and beans are believed to have completed a correction to the downside at Monday's low.  Wheat got a booster shot in the arm today with a sizable tender from Algeria.  I anticipate all to move higher, but remain skeptical about corn as to whether there is a new low or not. 

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To pork, poultry, and aquaculture producers, soybean meal should be looked at very closely for long term price fixing at levels you no longer wish to pay for feed costs. The carry is nil out to March of '27 and not much more beyond that.  I recommend laying a plan for a price under $300.00 to own call options, as far out as needed.  Of all the commodities, grains and oilseeds need a bump in price.  The President has been notorious for fixing certain issues, or at the very least, influencing them, to the extent that grains and oilseeds could become a project in trying to boost the price for farmers.  I have no inclination of this, but I do think about it. 

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Energy:​

Energy was mixed most of the day.  A Trump tweet this morning slowed the descent, whether on purpose or not. Stocks continue to fall and refining capacity was higher.  Under quasi normal conditions, the correction in the energy markets looks to be at attractive levels to be purchasing if renewed military actions were seen.  If you fuel provider has lowered prices in turn with the decline of futures, topping off tanks before the weekend is recommended.  ​

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Bonds:

​Bonds are lower, but notes are sharply lower.  An extension of the yield curve is believed to have been caused by the new Fed Chairman today.  This will inadvertently raise rates without having to raise the discount rate. The news didn't produce much of anything in the bond market, but a new high above Tuesday's.  With stagnation already having started in the bonds, and seemingly no agenda for rates, a few more months of won't be out of the ordinary.  

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​​​​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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