Monday Corn Starting Weaker

Corn prices are starting the new week and the new month with 3 to 4 cent weakness in early Monday futures trading following a 3-day weekend. Thursday’s trading session left the corn market ~6c off the day’s highs, but still 13 to 16 cents higher. Old crop May ended March with a 12c gain for the month. The new crop Dec contract ended the week with a 2 ½ cent gain and ended the month 14 ¼ cents stronger. The new crop soy/corn ratio was 2.483 at the close, which was up from the 2.446 ratio starting the month. 

Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report showed managed money increasing their net short in corn futures and options by 8,745 contracts during the week to 251,730 as of Tuesday March 26. Commercials were in the process of cutting their net short, by a net 15,913 contracts to 29,810. 

NASS showed March 1 corn stocks of 8.347 bbu  including 5.079 bbu on farms and 3.27 bbu off farms. The trade was looking for 8.45 bbu, and saw the number as bullish. It implied a 3.823 bbu Q2 demand vs. 3.417 bbu last year.  As Alan says, “Low price cure low prices, eventually.” 

Prospective plantings data from NASS had corn area at 90.04 million acres which was down 4.61 million acres yr/yr vs the 2.84 million acre drop expected on average by traders. The largest drop was 700k acres in MN, though IA/IL/IN/MO/OH and SD were each 300k acres lower yr/yr. 

May 24 Corn  closed at $4.42, up 15 1/4 cents, currently down 4 cents

Nearby Cash   was $4.20 1/2, up 16 cents,

Jul 24 Corn  closed at $4.54 1/2, up 15 1/4 cents, currently down 3 cents

Dec 24 Corn  closed at $4.77 3/4, up 15 1/2 cents, currently down 2 1/2 cents