Is Cocoa Heading Back to Pre-2024 Prices?

I last wrote about cocoa on Barchart on December 12, 2025, when I asked whether cocoa would remain above its long-term technical support level, the 1977 high of $5,104 per ton. I concluded with the following:

Cocoa has been one of the most volatile commodities since breaking out to the upside and reaching new all-time highs in 2024. Cocoa has been in a volatile bearish trend throughout 2025, and wide price variance is likely to continue into 2026. Long-term critical technical support is around $5,100 per ton, and the soft commodity has already violated that level. However, the level could become a crucial pivot point over the coming months.   

Active month ICE cocoa futures were trading at $6,258 per ton on December 12, 2025, and were substantially lower in June 2026.

Cocoa did not hold the critical technical support level

Critical technical support for ICE cocoa futures was at the 1977 high of $5,104 per ton, the pre-2024 record high. 

The quarterly chart shows that after reaching $12,931 per ton in Q4 2024, cocoa futures fell below the 1977 high and critical technical support in Q4 2025. At $3,952 on June 15, 2026, cocoa futures remain in a bearish trend and under the technical support that is now technical resistance.  

Production has improved

West Africa has the ideal climate for growing cocoa beans, so the Ivory Coast and Ghana are the world’s leading cocoa-producing countries. 

A May 22, 2026, article in Business Insider reported that the Ivory Coast expects cocoa production to exceed 2 million tons this season, which has weighed on the soft commodity’s price. After cocoa rose to record highs over the past few years due to production issues and shortages, the rebound in Ivorian production is easing supply issues.

High prices weighed on demand 

Cocoa prices exploded to over two and a half times the previous record high in late 2024. Meanwhile, the parabolic rally took cocoa prices to 5.9 times the Q3 2022 low. The explosive price action caused by production shortages caused wholesale cocoa consumers, the world’s leading chocolate manufacturers, to increase prices and seek substitutes. The bottom line is that the explosive rally caused demand to decline. 

Cocoa was the poster commodity for cyclicality 

In commodities, prices typically fall to levels where production declines, inventories fall, and consumers increase purchases at bargain prices. Conversely, prices typically rise to levels where production increases, inventories rise, and consumers curtail purchases. Commodity cyclicality is a powerful force, and the international cocoa market was the poster child for cyclicality during the most recent rally. 

In commodities, the cure for low prices is low prices, and the cure for high prices is high prices. Cocoa’s move to over $12,900 per ton stands as a compelling example of the cyclicality principle. 

The prospects for cocoa prices over the coming weeks and months

Cocoa prices have declined after the recent rally, but the threat of production problems remains a clear and present danger for supplies and prices. The May Business Insider article warned that “drought fears are already threatening next season’s harvest.” Meanwhile, as producers sought to increase production amid the highest cocoa price in history, the sharp price decline has led to some near-term oversupply. Cocoa beans do not have a long shelf life, and in the hot West African sun, “a sharp fall in cocoa prices over the past year has left beans rotting in some West African warehouses.”

The weather is the critical factor for cocoa prices as it determines the West African crop. From a technical perspective, the parabolic rally has redrawn support and resistance levels in the ICE cocoa futures market. 

The monthly 10-year chart shows that technical support is at the March 2026 low of $2,846 and the April 2017 low of $1,756 per ton. Technical resistance is at the May 2026 high of $4,777 and the November 2025 low of $4,924 per ton.

While the wild price swings in 2024 and 2025 are in the cocoa futures markets’ rearview mirror, the potential for weather-related volatility remains high. Moreover, with approximately 60% of the world’s cocoa production coming from the Ivory Coast and Ghana, weather conditions in West Africa will be the critical factor guiding prices over the coming months and years. 

There are no ETF or ETN products that track volatile cocoa prices. The ICE cocoa futures market offers futures and options contracts on the volatile soft commodity.  Cocoa is now trading on the high side relative to pre-2024 prices, and a continuation of ample supplies will likely push the price back towards the $1756-$2,943 range that cocoa futures traded in from 2017 through February 2023.