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August Lean Hogs is now the lead contract as its volume has exceeded the volume of the July contract. It opened unchanged and made the high of the day at 96.70. It worked lower the rest of the session and made the low at 95.60. It settled near the low at 95.775. The price action formed an inside candlestick as Monday’s range was locked in between Friday’s high and low. The open failed to test resistance at 97.30 and the breakdown took price to just above support at 95.30. Production continues to be a drag on the cutout, in my opinion as slaughter numbers and heavy weights keep production high and above last year’s production. The failure of the cutout to work higher has kept enthusiasm low in the Hog market. The cutout has stayed in the mid-90’s since February with a couple of attempts to take out the 100.00 barrier that continue to fail. The latest jump above 100.00 saw the cutout fall back towards 94.00, testing traders’ patience. The early optimism for a spring rally into grilling season has all but been eliminated as expectations for lower numbers, lower production and strong demand has been met by higher production, erratic exports and seemingly limited consumer interest for the cheaper pork products versus the higher beef prices. This has kept the cutout tamed and we have seen cash prices trade higher than the cutout which isn’t good for the packer. Bellies and hams have disappointed, especially in my opinion the belly. Prices have been low and any morning rally is usually met with a crash for the afternoon cutout. This has been a problem and needs to change soon, or we will likely continue to see the cutout struggle. A very disappointing situation for sure if it continues. We’ll see!... A failure from 95.30 could see price test support at 93.50. Support then comes in at 92.375. If price can hold settlement, it could test The Monday high. Resistance then comes in at 97.30.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 96.47 as of 06/12/2026.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 92.75 as of 06/11/2026.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 484,000, which is above last week’s 465,000 and last year’s 475,481.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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