June WASDE Preview: What the Trade Expects Thursday

USDA Report out on Thursday, 11:00am CT

Bottom line

• Old-crop (2025/26) U.S. carryout is seen close to USDA’s May numbers — corn and soybeans fractionally tighter, wheat fractionally looser.
• New-crop (2026/27) U.S. carryout: corn expected slightly below May; soybeans and wheat steady to slightly higher.
• First survey-based 2026/27 all-wheat production is pegged near 1.555 bil bu, a touch under the 2025 crop.
• The trade looks for USDA to raise South American output, with Argentine corn the standout (about +2 MMT vs. May).

The averages sit almost on top of USDA’s May estimates across both years, so the survey carries no strong directional bias. The widest dispersion is in new-crop corn, where the high-to-low range spans roughly 262 mil bu (1.857–2.119), reflecting disagreement over yield and demand this early in the season. Old-crop soybeans remain historically tight near 338 mil bu, so even small changes to crush or exports move the balance sheet.

With June the first survey-based production print, the relevant benchmark is last year’s crop. The trade sees all-wheat output essentially flat to marginally below the prior crop, led by a small step down in hard red winter (0.508 vs. 0.515). Soft red winter is the only class seen ticking higher. A figure in the 1.52–1.60 bil bu range would be a roughly unchanged-to-slightly-smaller crop.

What to watch on Thursday

• Corn — Does USDA trim new-crop carryout toward the trade’s tighter lean (1.947 vs. 1.957), and how aggressively does it lift Argentine corn?
• Soybeans — Old- and new-crop U.S. carryout both hover near 310–340 mil bu, leaving the balance sheet sensitive to small demand changes against record-large South American crops.
• Wheat — The first new-crop production print (~1.555 bil bu) lands near year-ago; the HRW estimate below last year’s crop is the line to watch for any supportive surprise.

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