The Trend Is Still Down In Wheat, But Holding A 78.6% Level Could Be The Start Of A Rally Into Spring

Wheat

(WEAT) 

The short of it,

Use 5.55 as the swing point for now.

Above it, the short term target is 6.00, longer term look for 6.65.

Below it, look for 5.30 to start.

Here is why,

Since the 2022 high in Wheat and the WEAT ETF each of the attempts to rally have been stopped by key Fibonacci retracements. The 38.2% retracement tells us staying below it keeps the trend intact and the 23.6% level tells us the market is extremely weak.

The high in June and then again in July of last year stopped not only at 38.2% back to the 10/10/22 high, but also 23.6% back to the high made in 2022, this area was 7.30 to 7.45. The setback from this area eventually sent to new lows as would normally be expected from these retracements.

The next rally after making new lows in November of last year took it right to 38.2% on 12/6/23. It has yet to make a new low to keep the trend intact, however it has hit a 78.6% retracement. As the ONE44 78.6% rule says, any failure to make a new low after hitting a 38.2%, or 23.6% retracement in the area of a 78.6% retracement can be the start of the next Bull more, or at least send it 78.6% of where it just came from. The short term target on a rally from 5.55 is 6.00 (78.6%) this is also a major Gann square. 

We also did a post about a week ago on the March Wheat that you can also find on Barchart for levels in that market.

Here is our latest video on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.

A Classic Fibonacci Reversal In The Market And How To Spot It.

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Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.

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