Investors are buying an unusually heavy volume of Strategy, Inc. (MSTR) at-the-money (ATM) call options today. That's a sign they are bullish on Bitcoin's (^BTCUSD )prospects, given MSTR's huge BTC treasury holdings.
MSTR is up over 6% today at $127.69, and Bitcoin is up over 3.5% at $63,852. Both of these securities are coming off recent bottoms after peaking a month ago. For example, MSTR closed at $120.44 on June 5, after reaching a peak price of $195.94 on May 11.
Similarly, BTC bottomed at $61,617 also on June 5 after coming off a peak of $81,812 also on May 11.
Clearly, investors can see that MSTR's stock price is tied to Bitcoin's movements. That has likely led to today's unusual MSTR call option volume.
Today's Unusual MSTR Call Option Volume
A Barchart report today shows unusually large call option volume in MSTR call options expiring August 21, which is 74 days from now. That seems to imply they are taking a long-term view on a potential rise in BTC.
The report shows over 51,700 MSTR call options traded at the $127.50 strike price for expiry on Aug. 21. That is over 80 times the prior outstanding call option contracts.
This price is close to MSTR's midday trading price ($127.52). That means it is considered an “at-the-money” call option contract.
However, buyers of these calls had to pay at least $20.10, and the midpoint is $20.75.
So, for these call options to eventually have any intrinsic value over the next 74 days, MSTR has to rise to over $148.25:
$127.50 +$20.75 = $148.25 breakeven
$148.25 / $127.69 (trading price) -1 = 1.161 -1 = +16.1% upside
In other words, they hope to see MSTR rise at least 16.1% by August 21. However, call option prices also carry extrinsic value. So, the option price will have more value than $20.75 as MSTR rises.
Buying Calls as a Speculative Investment
As a result, some call buyers expect to sell their call options, not necessarily to exercise them. That means that if MSTR starts to approach $148, the MSTR call option price could keep rising.
One way to track this is to look at an options profit calculator.
For example, the one call option costs $2,075 (i.e., $20.75 x 100). If MSTR rises to $141 in one month on June 8, one calculator estimates the premium will be $437 higher:
$25.12 x 100 = $2,512
$2,512 - $2,075 = $437
$437 / $2,075 = 1.2106
That would give the investor a 21.1% profit in one month, even though the underlying call option has no underlying intrinsic value (i.e., with MSTR over $148.25).
Of course, that would be a highly speculative investment.
Everything would depend on how high, if at all, Bitcoin will rise over the next 2 and a half months. If BTC rises 21% to over $77,000, these call options could gain a similar 21% increase in value.
Shorting MSTR Calls
Some investors are happy to sell these ATM calls. They get to earn $20.75, or a yield of 16.27%:
$20.75 / $127.50 = 0.1627
As a result, the average monthly return over the next 2.5 months is 6.5% (i.e., 16.27% / 2.5 = 0.065). That is a very attractive monthly yield, especially if it can be repeated every 3 months.
The investor does not gain any capital gain if MSTR rises, since the strike price is at the market. However, the downside risk is that MSTR falls from here. But at least the investor gets to keep the income already earned, so this provides downside protection:
$127.69 - $20.75 = $106.64
That is 16.5% below today's price.
Conclusion
The bottom line is that investors should be careful here. Shorting these ATM calls provides good income here, but no capital gain upside.
On the other hand, speculative buyers, who believe BTC is near a bottom and likely to rise, can gain significant upside through these ATM MSTR calls.
On the date of publication, Mark R. Hake, CFA did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
