Is It The End Of The World As We Know It?

Summary
   The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) serves as my primary market indicator, reflecting broad market sentiment and trends.

    I emphasize disciplined risk management: maintain diversification, set rational stop losses, and adhere to a predetermined plan.

    Short-term volatility, like this week's movement in VTI, is minimal compared to historical market disruptions.

    I anticipate a potential dead cat bounce next week, but prioritize long-term trend signals over crowd-driven reactions.

Please don't panic!   Today I was teasing John Rowland on his great weekly webinar Market Close using that great line from Friends:  Is this the end of the world as we know it?  And NO! It's not.

I've seen panic before.  I joined A.G. Edwards in the summer of 1987 and graduated from their Registered Rep School and went into production in September just in time to experience the October Meltdown.  I lived through the Dot.Com bubble and the Real Estate bubble and so many of those little blips and learned from each of them.

As long as you have a diversified portfolio and have rationally placed stop losses you will do fine.  Always have a plan to manage risks and stick to that plan.  Black Swan Events will happen and can't be predicted - That's why they are called Black Swan Events.

Let's put today in perspective.  I like to use the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF  VTI as a guide.  It hold 3,505 stocks in a Cap-Weighted portfolio so its a very good indicator of the Market.

I use a chart showing the weekly price, weekly Trend Seeker, the 50 week moving averages and the 50 week Hi/Lo Turtle Channel over the last 5 years.  It looks like this:

VTI (Barchart)

I look for when the price crosses the 50 week moving averages (my Stop Loss) and reenter the Market when I see the Weekly Trend Seeker signal a buy.

Notice this week's range.  Hardly a blip on the chart.  The Market tends to have a herd mentality and always over reacts.  I look for a Dead Cat Bounce next week and I'll let long term trends not a panicking herd guide me on what to do.

Please be rational, ignore the crowd and pick your own long term trend to follow.  Have faith in the data.