3G Capital Exits Microsoft Stock in Major Portfolio Shift. MSFT Is Still One of the Best AI Plays Now.

According to recent reports, 3G Capital dumped its Microsoft (MSFT) position in Q1 of 2026. The New York-based private equity firm sold 90,000 shares of MSFT stock in the March quarter, doubled down on Alibaba (BABA), and gained exposure to chip stocks. 

Despite the sale, I think Microsoft remains among the most compelling AI plays in the market right now. Let’s see why. 

Microsoft Is Firing on All Cylinders

If 3G sold Microsoft because the business is slowing down, the company's fiscal Q3 earnings call (ended in March) tells a very different story.

• In Q3, Microsoft Cloud reported revenue of $54.5 billion, an increase of 29% year-over-year.
• Azure sales rose 40%, while the AI segment surpassed $37 billion in annualized revenue, up 123%.
• Microsoft 365 Copilot, the company's AI productivity tool, now has over 20 million paid seats. That figure grew 250% year-over-year, representing Microsoft's fastest growth since the product launched.
• Companies such as Accenture (ACN) now have over 740,000 seats. Bayer (BAYRY), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Mercedes (MBGAF), and Roche (RHHBY) each committed to 90,000 or more Copilot paid seats.

CEO Satya Nadella said weekly Copilot engagement is now at the same level as Outlook. That kind of adoption depth matters. 

GitHub Copilot is a similar story, given that nearly 140,000 organizations now use it, and enterprise subscribers nearly tripled year-over-year. Microsoft also just moved GitHub Copilot to usage-based pricing, which could unlock a faster growth curve as heavy users get billed for what they actually consume.

The Bull Case for MSFT Stock

3G Capital runs a concentrated portfolio and trades opportunistically. Its exit may say more about its own allocation needs than any fundamental weakness in Microsoft. The firm was simultaneously piling into semiconductors, which is a higher-beta AI trade. That suggests conviction in AI spending overall, just through a different lens.

Microsoft, meanwhile, is not a speculative AI bet. It is a cash-generating machine with AI woven into its core products. 

• Operating margins rose slightly year-over-year to 46%, even as the company spent aggressively on infrastructure.
• Capital expenditures reached $31.9 billion in the quarter, and the company expects to invest roughly $190 billion across all of calendar year 2026.
• Management expects Azure growth to accelerate modestly in the second half of 2026 compared with the first half, despite supply constraints. 

Amy Hood, Microsoft's chief financial officer, framed it clearly on the earnings call. The transition from per-seat to per-seat-plus-consumption pricing is already happening in coding and customer service. As more workloads go agentic, the revenue model expands. More usage means more billing.

Microsoft has the ecosystem, the enterprise relationships, and the infrastructure to sit at the center of that shift. 3G Capital may have moved on. I think that creates an opportunity for investors who think in years rather than quarters.

Is MSFT Stock Undervalued?

Analysts tracking MSFT stock forecast revenue to increase from $281.7 billion in fiscal 2025 to $606.75 billion in fiscal 2030. In this period, adjusted earnings are projected to expand from $13.64 per share to $32 per share. 

If MSFT stock is priced at 23x forward earnings, which is below its 10-year average of 28x, it could return 74% from current levels. 

Out of the 48 analysts covering MSFT stock, 39 recommend “Strong Buy,” three recommend “Moderate Buy,” and six recommend “Hold.” The average MSFT stock price target is $554, above the current price of $418.