The Most Consistent Seasonal Trades Across Commodities—Backed by 15 Years of Data

Dual Edge Research publishes two powerful newsletters that work great individually — and even better together. The Bull Strangle Newsletter focuses on stocks and options, combining stock ownership with premium-selling strategies to generate consistent income and market-beating returns. The Smart Spreads Newsletter specializes in seasonal commodity futures spreads, offering a diversified approach with low correlation to equities. Together, they deliver a complete investment perspective — one focused on income, the other on diversification — all under one simple subscription.

Introduction

Commodity markets are often viewed as unpredictable, but long-term seasonal spread research suggests otherwise. Beneath the daily headlines, certain futures spreads consistently exhibit stable historical tendencies driven by inventory cycles, refinery schedules, planting and harvest patterns, weather-driven demand, and commercial hedging behavior.

To identify the strongest opportunities, a database of roughly 500,000 calendar spread combinations was analyzed across the past 15 years. The vast majority were eliminated after applying structural filters designed to remove unstable or low-quality trades. The screening process focused on factors such as:

• Historical consistency
• Correlation stability between contracts
• Liquidity  
• Hold duration
• Reward-to-drawdown relationships 

After applying those filters, only a small subset of markets consistently demonstrated favorable long-term characteristics. The findings reinforced a critical principle of spread trading:

• Selection determines distribution.

What Defines a “Consistent” Seasonal Trade?

The strongest markets were evaluated using four primary factors:

• Number of historical trades
• Average profit per trade
• Win percentage
• Frequency of large losses 

For this research, a “large loss” was defined as any trade losing more than $500.

The objective was not simply to find the highest-return market. Instead, the goal was to identify markets that combined profitability, repeatability, and controlled downside behavior across large sample sizes.

1. Natural Gas (SELL Structures)

Natural gas emerged as the most dominant seasonal market in the study. Across 4,759 SELL-side spread trades, the market produced:

• Average P&L: 1,476
• Win Rate: 78%
• Large Loss Frequency: 7% 

No other market combined sample size and profitability at this level. This consistency reflects the highly structured nature of the natural gas curve. Seasonal inventory build and withdrawal cycles repeatedly create periods where spreads become overstretched before normalizing back toward equilibrium.

In many cases, SELL-side structures naturally aligned with carry decay and curve compression, creating a favorable long-term distribution profile.

2. Heating Oil (BUY Structures)

Heating oil ranked as one of the strongest BUY-side seasonal markets. Across 624 trades:

• Average P&L: 1,814
• Win Rate: 80%
• Large Loss Frequency: 6% 

Among all markets studied, heating oil produced one of the best overall combinations of profitability and consistency. Recurring refinery maintenance schedules, winter heating demand, and seasonal inventory shifts heavily influence distillate markets. 

Those structural forces have historically created repeatable opportunities for directional spread expansion during specific periods of the year. Unlike many BUY structures that require unpredictable catalysts, heating oil displayed surprisingly durable seasonal persistence.

3. S&P 500 VIX (SELL Structures)

The S&P 500 VIX spreads produced one of the most remarkable statistical profiles in the dataset. Across 785 SELL-side trades:

• Average P&L: 1,075
• Win Rate: 99%
• Large Loss Frequency: 1% 

These results reflect the persistent mean-reverting behavior of volatility structures. Volatility spikes tend to be sharp but temporary. As market stress fades, the volatility curve often normalizes quickly, creating favorable conditions for SELL-side spread positions.

While volatility products can still experience extreme events, the long-term historical behavior of these spreads was exceptionally stable relative to many commodity markets.

4. Gasoil (BUY Structures)

Gasoil BUY structures also ranked among the strongest long-term performers. Across 489 trades:

• Average P&L: 788
• Win Rate: 71%
• Large Loss Frequency: 15% 

Although gasoil demonstrated a somewhat larger tail-risk profile than the top-ranked markets, its profitability and persistence remained impressive. Refinery operations, seasonal transportation demand, and global energy flows heavily influence European distillate markets. 

These recurring structural forces help reinforce long-term seasonal behavior. The higher large-loss frequency also highlights an important lesson from the research: Higher-return structures often come with wider outcome distributions.

5. Corn (SELL Structures)

Corn produced one of the strongest agricultural seasonal profiles in the study. Across 544 SELL-side trades:

• Average P&L: 260
• Win Rate: 77%
• Large Loss Frequency: 3% 

Corn may not generate the dramatic returns seen in energy markets. Still, its consistency and relatively low large-loss frequency made it one of the strongest risk-adjusted agricultural markets analyzed.

Planting cycles, harvest pressure, storage economics, and export flows create highly repeatable seasonal behavior throughout the grain complex.

Final Thoughts

The strongest seasonal trades are not based on prediction alone. They emerge when recurring physical market behavior aligns with favorable spread structure and historical persistence.

The 15-year research reinforced several key conclusions:

• Energy markets continue to dominate seasonal spread behavior
• Certain markets consistently favor one directional structure over another
• Consistency matters more than isolated outsized winners
• Large-scale filtering dramatically improves trade quality
• Trade selection largely determines long-term results 

This article focused primarily on identifying the markets that demonstrated the strongest long-term consistency after extensive filtering and structural screening. But the deeper research revealed several additional findings that were equally important — and in some cases, surprising. In next week’s article, we will explore some of the biggest discoveries from the study, including why certain spread structures consistently outperform, how direction changes the distribution profile of a trade, and why market structure matters far more than most traders realize. That philosophy forms the foundation of the Smart Spreads newsletter, where the focus remains on identifying structurally sound spread opportunities backed by historical behavior, disciplined filtering, and repeatable market tendencies.

More Information

Now you can get two powerful newsletters — for one simple price!

• For stocks and options, the Bull Strangle Newsletter shows you how to combine stock ownership with dual option selling — a disciplined strategy that has consistently outperformed the S&P 500.
• For commodity futures, the Smart Spreads Newsletter focuses on seasonal commodity spreads — a proven, low-correlation approach that thrives in all types of markets.

Each newsletter is designed to deliver consistent income on its own — but when used together, they create a complete, diversified trading approach that works in any market environment.

Visit BullStrangle.com to subscribe for just $1 for the first month.

For a video overview of the Bull Strangle Newsletter

For a video overview of the Smart Spreads Newsletter

Darren Carlat

Dual Edge Research

(214) 636-3133

DualEdgeResearch@gail.com

www.BullStrangle.com

Disclaimer

This information is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry inherent risk. Consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.