Everyone Agrees It's a Crisis. Gold Still Declines.

The UN Secretary-General is warning of a global food emergency. The German Chancellor says America has "no strategy." Russia's president pledged to "do everything" that serves Iran's interests. Hezbollah's leader called peace talks a "grave sin." The US rejected Iran's proposal. Iran rejected America's demands. Qatar is warning of a "frozen conflict." A US destroyer blocked an Iranian tanker today.

And yet - gold is down. Silver and mining stocks are down even more.

This tells us something – that the precious metals sector “wants” to decline – probably significantly so – before turning back up.

Gold price decline accelerated, and it just reached its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Even if this causes a rebound, it’s unlikely to be significant. 

Why? 

Because the rally in the USD Index that triggered this 2%+ decline was very small.

The USDX is up by mere 0.21% at the moment of writing these words.

If such a tiny move up in the USD managed to trigger such a big move lower in gold (about 10x bigger), then how far can gold slide when the USD Index finally soars in a meaningful way? 

Really far.

Meanwhile, the decline in mining stocks continues – in perfect tune with my expectations and to my subscribers’ benefit.

The GDXJ is down over 4% so far today, and if the pace of this decline is going to be similar to the pace at which it declined in March, then it seems that the decline is about to accelerate.

It could be the case that we’ll see GDXJ close to its March lows in 2-5 trading days.

Copper is also down today, and while it hasn’t plunged yet, it’s clear that it once gain invalidated it’s move above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and above few of this year’s highs.

This is bearish, especially that the FCX – one of the key copper stocks – is already moving lower.

FCX recently released a terrible earnings report, but its weakness extends way beyond the initial reaction. In other words, it looks like it’s ready to fall much more in the following weeks.

And it all continues to support the case for lower precious metals and mining stock prices in the following months and – likely – weeks.

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Thank you.

Sincerely,

Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA