The bean market ended the last trade day of the week near their highs on double digit gains. May prices closed back above the $15 mark for the first time since March 10th. May closed 77 cents higher for the week and ended the month with a net 26 1/2 cent gain. All of that came today! The new crop market was also higher on the day, but gains were limited to 16 1/4 cents. Soybean meal prices closed Friday up by $5.60 to $6.10/ton. For the month, May meal was $3 higher after a wild $55.60/ton range. Soybean oil was up 1.8% for the day, a 4.2% gain for the week, but still a 7.8% loss for the month. USDA reported IL’s weekly average B100 price at $5.97/gal – UNCH with last week.
Weekly CFTC data showed soybean spec traders were 99,522 contracts net long on 3/28. That was an 11k contract drop for the week mostly via long liquidation. The commercial soybean hedgers added 11k new longs for a 180,065 contract net short as of Tuesday’s settle. The spec traders added to their net short in soy oil via long liquidation, while the meal specs were 19k contracts less net long on long liquidation. That was 14% of the existing fund longs.
USDA’s NASS counted 1.685 bbu of soybeans for March 1st. That was tighter than the average trade guess, but within the range of estimates. Compared to last year, stocks were 246.4 mbu tighter. Implied Q2 demand was 1.336 bbu, compared to 1.205 bbu last year and the implied estimate for 1.294 bbu. The quarterly NASS update had 749.5 mbu (44.5%) of that in farmer hands, compared to 750 mbu (38.8%) on farm stocks last year.
NASS Prospective Plantings report shows farmers intend to plant 87.505 million acres of soybeans in 23/24. That is above the 87.45 planted for old crop and matches with their Feb projection. Traders were looking for 88.3 million on average. At the state level, most of the growth yr/yr was in the North, with SD 3.9% higher, ND 15% higher, MN 1.3% higher, and WI up by 6.5%. Kansas intends to plant 9% fewer bean acres, while NE, IA, IL, and OH were all even with 22/23.
Analysts surveyed expect USDA will confirm a 175.7 mbu soy crush for February in Monday’s report. The NOPA crush report had Feb at 165.41 mbu.
May 23 Soybeans closed at $15.05 1/2, up 31 cents,
Nearby Cash was $14.75 7/8, up 30 1/4 cents,
Jul 23 Soybeans closed at $14.75 1/2, up 28 1/2 cents,
Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $13.19 3/4, up 16 1/4 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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