
Soybean futures are 2 to 5 cents higher so far for Friday. Meal prices are working higher so far, while BO is fading. Old crop soybeans ended the day in the black, after May saw a 20 cent intraday range. The new crop futures went home fractionally weaker. Meal futures ended the day $3.60 to $4.40 lower, but soybean oil bounced higher by as much as 2.5%. For May BO, that flipped the contract to a net gain for the week.
Updated CFTC data had the soybean spec traders at a 157,220 contract net long as of 3/7. That was a 27.7k contract larger net long than the previous week. The commercials were shown at a 220k contract net short, which was 23k contracts more net short than 2/28’s settle.
The IGC cut estimated world soy production to 370 MMT, with 2022/23 carryout down 3 MMT from February at 46 MMT. Their initial new crop production estimate is up 29 MMT at 399 MMT, with ending stocks growing 10 MMT to 56 MMT.
USDA Weekly Export Sales totaled 665k MT for old crop soybean sales in the week that ended 3/9. That was a 6-wk high. Old crop exports came in at 773k MT for the week, bringing the season’s total to 42.839 MMT (1.574 bbu). Outstanding sales were 6.496 MMT for a total old crop commitment of 49.335 MMT (1.813 bbu). Last year’s commitments were 53.624 MMT (1.970 bbu) at the time and the WASDE full year forecast is for 54.84 MMT (2.015 bbu).
For the products, FAS reported 220k MT of 22/23 and 35k MT of 23/24 meal sales, and 3,869 MT of 22/23 oil sales. For soymeal, sales were down 32% wk/wk but inline with estimates. Soymeal commitments were 8.265 MMT as of 3/9, compared to the 12.43 MMT WASDE estimate and 8.792 MMT last year.
May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.91 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents, currently up 2 1/2 cents
Nearby Cash was $14.53 on Thursday, up 2 1/4 cents,
Jul 23 Soybeans closed at $14.76, up 1 1/2 cents, currently up 3 1/4 cents
Aug 23 Soybeans closed at $14.32, up 2 cents, currently up 3 3/4 cents
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.