Front month soy prices are higher so far, with 2-6 cent gains in the beans, $3-$4.50 gains in the meal, and 20 to 40 point gains in the oil. The soy market faded on Wednesday afternoon after the USDA report. Beans were mixed at the close, with May ending 18 cents under its daily high. The new crop soy/corn ratio was 2.458 at the close. Meal futures closed $2 to $3.10 in the red. Soybean oil dropped 70 points from the midday highs, but were still up by 30 to 42 points for the close. USDA left the average cash bean price at $14.30/bu, and the BO cash price at 68 cents/lb. The soymeal price was $25 higher to $450.
Going into the weekly Export Sales report, the trade estimates between 200k and 750k MT of soybeans were sold during the week that ended 3/2. New crop bean bookings are estimated below 200k MT. Census confirmed the official Jan soybean export was 8.559 MMT (314.5 mbu). That was just 270k MT under 2020/21’s record for the month, and was 3% above December’s volume. The season’s soybean export reached 1.412 bbu through Jan. For the products, Census had 1.405 MMT of Jan meal exports and 6,989 MT of soy oil shipments.
USDA’s monthly balance sheet had soy crush 10 mbu lighter to 2.2 bbu, but exports 25 mbu higher to 2.015 bbu. That shrank carryout 15 mbu to a smaller than expected 210 mbu.
The WAOB saw a 7.86 MMT lighter world soy crop, mainly due to a 7 MMT cut from Argentina. The trade average guess was to see a 36.7 MMT Argentina output; USDA reported 33 MMT. They only trimmed Argentina’s exports by 800k MT from last month. Argentina’s soymeal exports were also cut 1.3 MMT. Global soybean stocks dropped 2 MMT compared to Feb, now figured at 100 MMT and matching pre-report trade ideas.
Rosario Grains Exchange reduced their forecast for Argentina’s soy output again, from 34.5 MMT down to 27 million metric tonnes.
Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.26 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents, currently up 2 3/4 cents
Nearby Cash was $14.79 7/8, up 2 1/2 cents,
May 23 Soybeans closed at $15.17 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents, currently up 6 1/4 cents
Jul 23 Soybeans closed at $15.06 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents, currently up 6 cents
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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