Beans Gaining into Friday Day Session

Soy prices are working with gains of 3 to 5 cents so far ahead of the 3-day President’s Day weekend.  Soybean prices were fractionally to 2 1/2 cents higher in the nearby contracts at the bell on Thursday. The new crop prices closed with gains of as much as 8 3/4 cents, tightening the inverse. Nov contracts were still a $1.42 3/4 discount to March at the bell. Soymeal found afternoon strength to close the day mostly higher within 40 cents/ton of UNCH. BO futures were up by 66 to 71 points at the Thursday close. 

The ERS released their 10-yr projections for soybeans, suggesting that 23/24’s baseline acreage would be 87m with a 52 bpa yield. Stocks would grow some to 226 mbu, with a $13 cash price. By the end of the decade, crush is seen working higher to 2.5 bbu/yr, with exports maintained between 2 – 2.2 bbu/yr. This model does not appear to fully reflect new crush plants expected to be completed between 2023 and 2026. Their long-term projections have planted area steady near 87m acres, with trendline improvements to yield and stocks capped near 310 mbu. 

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 512,802 MT of old crop soybeans were sold, which was within the range of estimates. The weekly report also had 260k MT of new crop sales. Old crop commitments were 1.767 bbu, matching last year and 89% of the WASDE forecast. New crop commitments were at 42.7 mbu, compared to 165 mbu at the same point last year. 

IGC numbers showed a 6.2 MMT smaller 22/23 world soybean crop for their Feb forecast. The cuts came mainly from the U.S., down by 1.9, and Argentina, down by 4.5 MMT to 37.5. Global carryout was shown at 49.2 MMT from their prior 53.8 MMT figure. 

Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $15.26 1/2, up 3/4 cent, currently up 5 1/4 cents

Nearby Cash   was $14.82 1/8, up 1 cent,

May 23 Soybeans  closed at $15.21 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents, currently up 4 1/2 cents

Jul 23 Soybeans  closed at $15.13, up 2 1/2 cents, currently up 4 cents