Nat-Gas Prices Under Pressure from Above-Normal U.S. Temps

March Nymex natural gas (NGH23) on Wednesday closed down -0.096 (-3.74%).

Mar nat-gas prices Wednesday settled moderately lower as above-normal U.S winter temperatures curb heating demand for nat-gas.  The Commodity Weather Group said above-normal temperatures are expected across the eastern and southern U.S. states through Feb 24.  BNEF said lower-48 state nat-gas demand today is expected at 79.2 bcf, down -18% y/y.

Losses in nat-gas prices Wednesday were limited due to the partial reopening of the Freeport LNG export terminal, which is boosting U.S. nat-gas exports.  Estimated gas flows to U.S. LNG export terminals Tuesday were seen reaching 13.5 bcf, up +10.5% w/w and the highest since last March.  The resumption of nat-gas exports from Freeport will curb U.S. gas inventory builds and is bullish for prices.

Lower-48 state dry gas production on Wednesday was 99.5 bcf (+3.8% y/y), moderately below the record high of 103.6 bcf posted on Oct 3, according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state gas demand Wednesday was 79.2 bcf/day, down -18% y/y, according to BNEF.  On Wednesday, LNG net flows to U.S. LNG export terminals were 13.2 bcf/day, up +9.2% w/w.

Nat-gas prices fell sharply over the past two months to a 2-year low on Feb 3 as abnormally mild weather across the northern hemisphere erodes heating demand for nat-gas.  The warm temperatures this winter have caused rising nat-gas inventories in Europe and the U.S., with gas storage across Europe currently 66% full as of Feb 13, far above the 5-year seasonal average of 46%.  Also, U.S. nat-gas inventories are +5.2% above their 5-year average as of Feb 3.

Analytics Group said in a recent note to clients that nat-gas prices are facing "extended downside risks over the next 30-45 days" due to a combination of strong production, constrained export demand tied to the Freeport LNG terminal shutdown, growing inventory surpluses, and mild winter temperatures.

A negative factor for nat-gas prices is the continued closure of the Freeport LNG export terminal.  On Jan 12, the Rapidian Energy Group said that the Freeport LNG export terminal, closed since an explosion on Jun 8, will likely be offline "for several more months."  The report cited the delay in the "extensive personnel training" required by federal regulators overseeing the restart of the terminal.  The closure of the facility has been bearish for nat-gas prices since the reduction in LNG exports has boosted U.S. nat-gas inventories.  The Freeport terminal normally accounts for about 20% of all U.S. nat-gas exports and receives about 2 bcf, or 2.5%, of the output from the lower 48 U.S. states.

A decline in U.S. electricity output is bearish for nat-gas demand from utility providers.  The Edison Electric Institute reported  Wednesday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended Feb 11 fell -5.3% y/y to 75,319 GWh (gigawatt hours).  However, cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending Feb 11 rose +1.5% y/y to 4,111,588 GWh.

The consensus is for Thursday's weekly EIA nat-gas inventories to fall by -98 bcf.

Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas prices since it showed U.S. nat gas inventories fell -217 bcf, more than expectations of -201 and a larger draw than the 5-year average draw of -171 bcf for this time of year.  Nat-gas inventories are now +5.2% above their 5-year seasonal average.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended Feb 10 fell by -8 to 150 rigs, the fewest in 9 months and moderately below the 3-1/4 year high of 166 rigs posted in the week ended Sep 9.  Active rigs have more than doubled from the record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
 

• Crude Tumbles as the Dollar Strengthens and EIA Crude Inventories Surge
• Nat-Gas Prices Soar as Partial Reopening of Freeport Terminal Boosts U.S. Gas Exports
• Crude Tumbles as U.S. Plans to Release Crude from Stategic Petroleum Reserve
• Nat-Gas Retreats on Warm Temps and No Firm Timeline for Freeport Reopening