Soybeans Attempting A Turnaround Tuesday

Soybean futures are bouncing following a weaker start to the week with 5 to 11 cent gains this Tuesday morning. Bean oil prices stayed firm as crude oil continued upward for most of Monday. The nearby soy futures fell to start the week. Beans ended the day with 0.9% to 1.1% losses in the front months and March below the $15/bu mark for the first time since January 11. Soymeal futures closed with 0.4% to 0.8% losses on the day. 

Weekly Export Inspections data showed 1.805 MMT of soybeans were shipped during the week of 1/19. That was down 384k MT from last week but was 422k MT more than the same week last year. China was the top destination with 2/3 of the weekly total. USDA also added 123,382 MT of exports to past reports, which takes the full year export figure to 34.1 MMT. Last year’s pace was 35.032 MMT through 1/20. 

Safras and Mercado expects Brazil’s 2023 soy exports at 93 MMT up from 78.9 MMT for 2022 – citing a 16% increase to supply availability. 

Many of the major growing regions of Argentina got rainfall through the weekend, with the 7-day realized rainfall total of at least 1” and up to 3 1/2”. USDA’s Crop Explorer database’s SPI Drought Severity (CHIRPS) also improved across most of the country, though the Northeast and both Uruguay and Paraguay are still in drought. Over the past 10 days in Brazil, Mato Grosso has gotten much better, but still registers some D1-D2 in the North. Southern Brazil has also improved, but MGDS is now showing up on the dry side.

Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.90 1/4, down 16 1/4 cents, currently up 11 cents

Nearby Cash   was $14.54 on Monday, down 16 3/8 cents,

May 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.87 1/4, down 14 1/2 cents, currently up 10 3/4 cents

Jul 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.80, down 13 cents, currently up 9 cents