Nat-Gas Prices Rise as US Weather Forecasts Cool

May Nymex natural gas (NGK26) on Thursday closed up +0.037 (+1.42%).

Nat-gas prices settled higher on Thursday as a mixed US weather forecast sparked short-covering in nat-gas futures.  The Commodity Weather Group said that forecasts shifted cooler across the eastern two-thirds of the US through April 20, but above-average temperatures are expected in the eastern US and the Upper Midwest from April 21-25.

On Tuesday, nat-gas prices sank to a 17-month low due to above-normal spring temperatures that have reduced US nat-gas heating demand and expanded storage levels.  

Projections for higher US nat-gas production are negative for prices.  Last Tuesday, the EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US dry nat-gas production to 109.59 bcf/day from a March estimate of 109.49 bcf/day.  US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs posting a 2.5-year high in late February.

US (lower-48) dry gas production on Thursday was 110.7 bcf/day (+3.3% y/y), according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state gas demand on Thursday was 70.0 bcf/day (-4.3% y/y), according to BNEF.  Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Thursday were 19.9 bcf/day (unchanged w/w), according to BNEF.

Nat-gas prices have some medium-term support on the outlook for tighter global LNG supplies.  On March 19, Qatar reported "extensive damage" at the world's largest natural gas export plant at Ras Laffan Industrial City.   Qatar said the attacks by Iran damaged 17% of Ras Laffan's LNG export capacity,  a damage that will take three to five years to repair.   The Ras Laffan plant accounts for about 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply, and a reduction in its capacity could boost US nat-gas exports.  Also, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in Iran has sharply curtailed nat-gas supplies to Europe and Asia.

As a negative factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended April 11 fell -1.0% y/y to 72,672 GWh (gigawatt hours).  However, US electricity output in the 52 weeks ending April 11 rose +1.76% y/y to 4,322,473 GWh.

Thursday's weekly EIA report was neutral to bearish for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended April 10 rose by +59 bcf, right on expectations but well above the 5-year weekly average of +38 bcf.  As of April 10, nat-gas inventories were up +6.7% y/y, and +5.8% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies.  As of April 14, gas storage in Europe was 30% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 42% full for this time of year.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending April 10 fell by -3 to 127, modestly below the 2.5-year high of 134 rigs set on February 27.  In the past 17 months, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4.75-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.